Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in six states, according to a new CNBC / Change Research poll, with the president aiming to defend his bid for a second term on Tuesday.
A poll released Monday found that former vice presidents with at least thin edges in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all won Trump in 2016. Still, it shows the race within the distance. President in most of them Electoral College prizes.
- All six swings state: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
- Florida: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
- Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
- North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Biden 53%, Trump 45%
In a separate national CNBC / Change research poll, Biden is leading Trump by a margin of 52% to 42%.
The swing-state poll surveyed 3,328 people from Thursday to Sunday and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points. A national survey conducted over the same period has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.26 percentage points, with a sample size of 1,880 potential voters.
The turnout in the final tug-of-war before election day is clear, but there is no incredible advantage for Biden in the White House race. While rivals in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are looking closer, Trump has more ground in Michigan and Wisconsin, which helped him advance to the White House in 2016.
It is not clear how much a late reversal in voter sentiment will change the presidential race this year. In elections where Americans voted early or in large numbers by mail, 68% of people surveyed, both national and swing-state, said they had already voted.
In Arizona, 85% of people said they had already voted, while in Florida and North Carolina, 5% and 1% of potential voters said the same, respectively. Meanwhile, 63% and Wisconsin and ich 57% of voters said they voted, respectively. In Pennsylvania – which can take days to count mail-in votes – only 40% said they voted.
Meanwhile, the battlefield-state poll shows Democrats running close races for the three main Senate seats. The party that wins all the elections in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina will go a long way towards gaining control of the Senate. The Republicans currently have a -4 53–47 majority.
In the Arizona special election, Democratic former astronaut Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha Maxley by a margin of 51% to 47%. Democratic Sen. of Michigan. Gary Peters has a G.O.P. The Army has an edge of 51% to 46% compared to Pte and businessman John James.
In North Carolina, the former Democratic state of Sen. Cal Cunningham Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is ahead by a margin of 50% to 46%. CNBC / Change Research Polls has found a consistent but slight lead in a race for Ningham, even after confirming the Democrat’s romantic relationship with a woman who is not his wife.
The poll suggests that Trump’s performance during his first term, particularly in handling the coronavirus epidemic, which killed more than 230,000 Americans, hampered him in major states. In six swing states, 46% of potential voters said they allow how Trump is handling the virus, as opposed to who%.
At the national level, only 1% of people said they would approve of how the president would split, as opposed to %%% who said they disapproved.
At the same time,% of voters on the battlefield states said they prefer Biden and the Democrats to handle the coronavirus versus 47% of Tripp and Republicans. Nationally, 58% said they would choose Biden and his party to manage the aggression, while 42% chose the president and his party.
Trump got better marks on the economy: ents1% in the swing states and ents 46% at the national level said they approve of how they are handling the issue.
Economy and coronavirus were found to be crucial issues for voter representatives before election day, while voters were asked to name the three most important issues facing the country.
In the Swing-State survey, 48% chose the economy, jobs and cost of living, while 41% chose the Covid-19. The next biggest concern was political corruption, which was chosen by 34% of voters.
At the national level, 44% of voters chose Covid-1, followed by economy, jobs and living, 43% political corruption and political 1% recovery costs.
Data signal Biden’s lead has a lot to do with the current occupant of the White House. More than half, or 54%, of Swing-State Biden voters said they were voting primarily against Trump, while 46% said they were largely voting for the former vice president.
Motivation is different among Trump supporters. Eight-in-10, or more than 84%, said they would vote for Trump, while 1% said they would vote against Biden.
– Graphics by CNBC’s Net Rattner
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