It is a match fit for a European final between two of the world football titans. It’s a game with global brands, superstars of the sport and as much history as any recent Championsdown showdown. But Friday’s Champions League quarter-final – which you can stream exclusively on CBS All Access – between Barcelona and Bayern Munich feels much different than most meetings they have had in the last two decades. We think of these two at the top of their games almost always, but Barca clearly do not come in the showdown.
Barcelona crashed too late, losing La Liga to Real Madrid after winning at least five of their last nine matches. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich has won 19 games in a row, taken the Bundesliga and German Cup and entered this one as a favorite.
So what exactly are Barca against and what should they do to continue? Here’s what you need to know:
Why are Barcelona the underdog?
It’s pretty simple, really. Barca have been inconsistent since recovering from the game in June, while Bayern have been the strongest team in the world, which of course makes them the favorite. Bayern Munich is -106 favorite, per William Hill Sportsbook, while Barca has +255 odds of winning.
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Forget that Bayern have won 19 games in a row – they have actually been unbeaten in their last 24 games and scored 0.54 goals per game while scoring 65 goals in those games. They have been dominant, have blown opponents out of the water and have probably remained the strongest team. While Bayern have been perfect, Barca have lost to Osasuna and Celta Vigo pulled the strings down to claim the league title to their bitter rivals.
What are Bayern doing so well?
Bayern dominate at both ends, but if you look closer you can see what makes them effective. They like to keep to the ball, and if you do, it’s obviously harder for the opposing team to score. They usually have more possession than the other team, but what the attacker does to create chances is the key.
Here is a highlight of Bayern’s 4-1 victory over Chelsea in their round of 16 second leg last week. Take a look at the fast passing, and how star star Robert Lewandowski sees the space in defense, makes the perfect run and is found after some fast passing that shows how in sync they are:
Here is another clip from the same game when Corentin Tolisso scored for Bayern. Again, Chelsea’s defense leaves the space, and he makes the onslaught in the heart of the box.
So what does this have to do with Barca? Now, Barca have a defense that sometimes shows a lack of focus and form, allowing players to find space and create chances. If they are not very sharp, it can become ugly.
Take a look:
Bayern can break you if you play fantastic defense, but if you give them space, they will hurt you ruthlessly. Barca need to be careful.
What must Barca do to defeat them?
Defensively, Barca have to be very careful, because Bayern can defeat you in different ways. Keeping fit, staying defensively compact and following runners will be essential.
Just look at Jordi Alba’s position here in last week’s 3-1 victory over Napoli in the round of 16 second leg. Do that against Bayern, and they will exploit it. He is in the red circle, and the blue circle is where he should be.
CBS Sports
But of course you can not win if you do not score. Barca need to feel confident to see a good piece of the ball, but it will not come easily. While Lionel Messi has the magic to turn a game on its head at any moment, the odds are something else will have to give. Be it an unexpected, strong tone from Antoine Griezmann or Luis Suarez playing as it is 2016, who will step up next to Messi? For that to matter itself, the defense has to come into play.
It’s hard to imagine a Barca team having to focus on defense first, but Bayern have more of a threat than what Quique Setien’s team has to face this season. Barca will get their chances, and they will come forward to put up their will, but Bayern will probably get more chances, and Barca’s defense must be perfect. Barca need to limit mistakes and play with caution to have every chance of going through.
