NFL – Super Bowl LV: Kansas City Chiefs in Data Analysis

As in the previous year, the Kansas City Chiefs are in the Super Bowl and could be the first team since the 2004 New England Patriots to successfully defend their title. But how does this year’s team stack up against the champions of the previous season in direct comparison? The heads in data analysis.

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From a trivial point of view, the 2020 Chiefs are of course better on paper than the 2019 Chiefs, because they simply won two more games! In 2019 they finished the year with a balance of 12-4 and the second place in the list of seeds, in 2020 it was 14-2 in the first seed of the AFC.

But it’s not that simple. A look at the numbers should give us more information.

Kansas City Chiefs in Data Analytics

Standard offense

A look at the numbers shows that the Chiefs have increased their offensive production almost across the board.

Bosses have become more efficient compared to the previous year. With almost the same number of units, they scored almost 600 yards and 22 more points. However, the score percentage changed only slightly.

The increase in points and yards can be explained primarily by the fact that Patrick Mahomes missed nearly three full games last year with a knee injury. This year he started 15 games and sat outside in the season finale in week 17 to protect himself, but was always active before that.

In terms of turnover, the high level of the previous year could essentially be maintained.

Standard defense

While offensive production has increased, the defense certainly took a step back.

We are seeing an increase in approved yards and a significant increase in approved points.

The explanation for this, however, is quite simple and only has to do with the performance of the Chiefs in general. Opponents have generally gotten more aggressive this season because they learned in 2019 that you can’t play conservatively against KC. Consequently, he put more on the pass and less on the run.

When it comes to significantly more points allowed, the explanation for this is obvious: Your own Red Zone Defense is essentially like an open barn door! In more than 74 percent of their opponents’ trips to the Red Zone, the Chiefs allowed touchdowns. Not only are they clearly worse than 2019, but they also represent the worst data center defense in the entire NFL. Only the Lions (72.31 percent) also allowed touchdowns in more than 70 percent of the cases.

Advanced statistics

In this section we primarily examine DVOA, i.e. Defensive Value Above Average (more detailed explanations can be found here!), A rating statistic of Soccer Outsiders, which has the advantage that it is significant not only in the context of a particular season, but also when different years are compared.

Specifically, it’s about the efficiency with which a team and its individual units appear. In general, the percentage should be as high as possible for offense and as low as possible for defense.

The FO numbers mostly confirm what crowd stats have already indicated: The offense continues to play at a very high level.

Defense, however, is problematic. And this is where the weak performance of the Red Zone comes in. Touchdowns have a great influence on this consideration and if you allow so many more, especially in the Red Zone, efficiency decreases.

Overall, defense efficiency fell by around six percentage points. While the Chiefs Defense was in top midfield the previous year, it was only 22nd in the league in 2020. The main reason for this is clearly the passing defense, which suffered from more aggressive opponents. In terms of personnel, relatively little has changed compared to the previous season.