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Scientists are calling for a “vastly improved data situation” on the corona infection process. With the currently inadequate data, there is a risk of losing the modeling tool. “This means that we are exposed to the infection process practically blind and even lose the opportunity to make short-term forecasts,” warned the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) researchers in a “Policy Brief” published on Thursday.
“If, as is the case today, there are massive false reports and late reports from authorities (sometimes for days), it becomes increasingly impossible to describe the current infection situation and that of the recent past, much less forecast the number of future cases, “writes Peter Klimek. and Stefan Thurner of CSH in the analysis published Thursday. They emphasize that it is to make informed decisions like “Close or not?” You need not only an understanding of the dynamics, especially why growth rates fluctuate so strongly, but also a vastly improved database of case numbers and capacities in the healthcare sector.
Fluctuations between minus 10 and plus 25 percent
To arrive at meaningful forecasts, you have to know the exponential growth rate with precision, the researchers emphasize. However, this could be difficult in practice. The 7-day incidence, that is, the number of new infections per week, has changed between minus 10 and plus 25 percent in recent months. The biggest jumps in growth rates were recorded in mid-August, mid-September and late October. “Due to the overall low number of cases in the first breaks in August and September, these were recorded, but hardly associated with demands for new closures,” the analysis says.
