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A subtle hint of the new surge of new infections can already be seen, which could possibly be related to less discipline during the Easter holidays. The current relaxation, which is currently occurring in many countries, is likely to have the corresponding consequences due to uncertainties and unwanted effects, and one should expect infections to increase to a “no longer tolerable level”.
In summer, there could also be a seasonal effect, with a combination of sun exposure, dryness, and plenty of time outdoors, fewer infections. Then there would be less immunity for the population, and in combination with relief, one would run into an “immunologically naive” population in the winter: “Then the ‘blockade’ could threaten again,” Drosten said.
Drosten virologist in CoV research
Christian Drosten from Charite in Berlin is the leading SARS CoV-2 investigator in Europe. At ZIB2, Drosten explains what has been learned about the corona virus in recent months.
Believe in the vaccine in a year.
The virologist believes that large sectors of the population can receive a vaccine in a year. “The question is, how’s it going until then?” According to Drosten, there is a possibility of unknown effects, such as undetected background immunity due to previous infections with the common cold coronavirus. This would only shorten the epidemic.
Drosten also advises caution during summer activities. I wouldn’t say it was “de facto safe” outside. Basically, however, it is the case that “an aerosol component is less effective outdoors,” that is, that of fine droplets in the air, which could well become an epidemiological component. Each dilution of the air is positive and, in any case, the risk of infection outdoors is small compared to half or full hour stays in closed rooms with many people.
However, in individual cases, such as close contact in the pool or intensive contact sports such as soccer, one has to look closely and assess the situation individually. “In general, exercise and sports are, of course, a good thing,” says the virologist.
Caution with studies in children
Care should also be taken with studies showing that children transmit fewer coronaviruses. To this end, according to Drosten, very little research has been done. So far, the results have also been conflicting. A recent Dutch study showing that children in families are less affected is not statistically significant. Much more research is needed in this area.
He was quite critical of the Swedish model: “The truth is in the middle.” Germany and Austria had a brief “blockade” and therefore well controlled the pandemic. In Sweden, responsibility was delegated to the people, and “apparently this was not enough.” Mortality is rising rapidly, and Sweden will also end up in the same place, “only with far more deaths.”
“Of historical importance”
In principle, Drosten also emphasized once again that due to the high death rate, the coronavirus cannot be compared to seasonal influenza. “We do not have an exceptional situation like this in the records, so you have to go back to the Spanish flu,” said the virologist on the importance of the situation. “We are already experiencing something of historical importance.” Even if the coronavirus epidemic is under control, it will be of great importance and serve as a “model for pandemic preparedness and investigation.” In the long term, according to the virologist, the virus will be one of the series of colds.
