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For a few weeks, public life in Germany was almost silent to slow the spread of the coronavirus. However, the longer the block continues, the stronger will be the relaxation of exit restrictions. The first measures have already been withdrawn: businesses can resume operations, schools reopen for certain years, and religious services must be allowed again in some federal states. Experts are concerned about this development and warn of a second wave of infections after Germany initially controlled the virus relatively well. “I’m so sorry these days that we’re about to completely squander this leadership,” virologist Christian Drosten said in his podcast on NDR Info.
A historical example from Denver shows what this might look like. The capital of the US state of Colorado was repeatedly cited at the start of the coronavirus pandemic as a benchmark for treating a deadly and highly contagious disease. In 1918, at the time of the Spanish flu, Denver had reacted quickly with far-reaching restrictions on public life and had fewer deaths than other cities. But: After the measures were lifted, there was a strong outbreak of the disease with many deaths, as a chart in the “Washington Post” shows.
Parallels between coronavirus and Spanish flu: when can you unlock the lock?
Denver in 1918 was like Germany in 2020. Even then, a pandemic kept the world on hold. After the Spanish flu outbreak in the city, those responsible reacted quickly and implemented rigorous measures of social distancing. This made it possible to control the disease, on the one hand, but the public acceptance of the measures continued to decline. City entrepreneurs also lobbied for politics.
+++ Read more about measures against the Spanish flu here: Two case studies of the Spanish flu in 1918 show why radical quarantine is important +++
After five weeks of closure, politics in Denver gave way: Mayor William Fitz Randolph Mills lifted exit restrictions on November 11, just in time for the end of World War I. Hundreds celebrated the end of the war on the streets. The decision turned out to be fatal. Denver thought it was already at the end of the pandemic, but it hadn’t even passed half at the time. A second wave of infections followed, which was even more fatal than the first.
Eleven days after the blockade was lifted, city officials reverted to the previous restrictions. But that too was too late. A little later, the local Denver Post newspaper reported that more people died from Spanish flu in Denver than people from the US state of Colorado during World War I. A similar effect was observed in other US cities. The US, which relaxed the measures too early during the pandemic.
Relaxing measures could lead to many deaths
Chancellor Angela Merkel can keep examples like these in mind when she publicly warns: “We shouldn’t weigh ourselves for a second on security.” Germany is still at the start of the pandemic, Merkel emphasizes. In the United States, developments in Denver are often used as an argument against early cancellation of the measures. But also in Germany the demands for relaxation are becoming increasingly emphatic.
Virologists fear that in a second wave of infections the virus will spread more widely across the country, and that there may later be several outbreak outbreaks. It would be much more difficult to contain the corona virus. The Spanish flu serves as an example of history’s warning for many: during the 1918/19 pandemic, between 20 and 40 million people died worldwide, around two percent of the world’s population at that time.
Sources: CNN / “Denver Health” / “Washington Post” / “National Geographic” / NDR Information
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