[ad_1]
Charité’s chief virologist Christian Drosten made it clear in his podcast that the blockade in Germany had an impact on the infection process. In doing so, it responds to discussions that the number of R plays was 1 before the introduction of contact restrictions and that, therefore, the measures would have had no effect. “That is a completely wrong view,” says Drosten.
R describes the number of people infected on average by an infected person. According to Robert Koch Institute figures, this was 1 before contact restrictions were imposed on March 23, and has not fundamentally changed since then. Drosten describes various effects that explain this.
On the one hand, data from mobile network operators would show that the mobility of Germans was significantly reduced in early March, long before the introduction of contact restrictions. Drosten suspects the reason for this is the public discussion of the measures, along with the report of the Heinsberg outbreak and the appalling images of Italy.
Test capabilities have skyrocketed
In addition to gradual restrictions, from large event bans to closing schools and closing contacts, you can see a gradual change in the number of cases. There was a clear drop in new infections in early April and mid-April. “You can see very well that the blockade had lagged effects later.”
[Wenn Sie alle aktuellen Entwicklungen zur Coronavirus-Krise live auf Ihr Handy haben wollen, empfehlen wir Ihnen unsere runderneuerte App, die Sie hier für Apple-Geräte herunterladen können und hier für Android-Geräte.]
For Drosten, the main reason R is not 0 with the introduction of the blockade is outbreaks in nursing homes and hospitals. Existing rules do not apply here. Drosten also claims that the labs jumped from mid-February to mid-March, which skills test in Germany. There were 87,000 tests in the first week of March, 127,000 in the second, and 348,000 in the third.
Testing capabilities play an important role in determining R. “The status quo for PCR testing was reached in mid-March,” says Drosten. He suspects that this has distorted the statistics, as one of the effects with the stagnation of the test numbers has disappeared.
The patient’s age plays an important role.
Drosten still agrees with the Helmholtz Association position paper. They had calculated that if the existing measures had been continued, it would have been possible to bring R down to 02. It would have had to introduce special measures in hospitals or nursing homes, says Drosten. “I would be optimistic that something like this works.”
But: “We don’t opt for it socially,” Drosten continued. “It is now a common goal to control the R value and keep it in the range of 1,” says Drosten. Among other things, it is important to consider intensive capabilities. Even with the same number of new infections, they could decrease as the age of infected people requiring intensive care increases.
Drosten sees a two-week “discussion pace” as “too short.” It would take an average of a month from infection to intensive care. “We have to wait more,” says the virologist. In Germany, the next federal and state meeting is scheduled for April 30, but Merkel had already announced that she would only decide on further relaxation on May 6.
Advances in vaccine development.
The good news comes from China. Here, the researchers tested a so-called dead vaccine in monkeys, with good first results. For this easy-to-produce vaccine, the virus is grown in a cell culture, killed, and made into a vaccine.
Since such a vaccine is considered risky, German scientists are not investigating it. Chinese manufacturer Sinovac is conducting a clinical study with such a deadly vaccine and has published the first results in a manuscript.
[FollowallnewdevelopmentsonthecrownvirusinourliveblogsonthevirusandtheworldandthevirusinBerlin[VerfolgenSiealleneuenEntwicklungenzumCoronavirusinunseremLiveblogszumVirusweltweitundzumVirusinBerlin[SigatodoslosdesarrollosnuevossobreelviruscoronaennuestrosblogsenvivosobreelvirusentodoelmundoyelvirusenBerlín[VerfolgenSiealleneuenEntwicklungenzumCoronavirusinunseremLiveblogszum Virusweltweit undzum VirusinBerlin]
The researchers vaccinated the rhesus monkeys as you would vaccinate on day 0, day 7, and day 14, in two different doses. Then a very good production of antibodies was observed. The researchers then gave the monkeys an extremely high concentration of the virus directly into the trachea, a total of one million infectious units.
“Not even a hint of virus replication”
It turned out that there was clear protection even against very high exposure virus doses. “The lungs were completely protected,” says Drosten. In the group of monkeys that had received the high dose of the vaccine, “not a shred of virus replication was seen.”
“At the end of this study, you’re a little bit amazed,” says Drosten. It will generate discussions among vaccine developers, but also in society. Production facilities for such a dead vaccine already exist worldwide, even in the least developed countries. “It’s worth considering if you don’t want to go this route,” says Drosten.
Assume that there will be a wide range of different vaccines in Germany. They may be available at that time next year, “but maybe sooner.”
