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“Do we need a Bergamo first to regain the courage for a hard confinement?” Asks the president of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), Prof. Gernot Marx, and plays with the situation of triage in Italy on the first Crown -Make signs.
The debate on the appropriate measures in the crisis of the crown, on closures and restrictions, determines warnings and reminders, which COULD happen in the worst case.
Politicians often take over warning clinics that will soon be overloaded to promote compliance with closure rules. Chancellor Angela Merkel (66, CDU) asked citizens on her podcast for a “quiet Easter in a small group”. So that? So that the health system can bear the burden of corona.
Germany’s top hospital chief is fed up!
“These persistent overload scenarios, also from medical associations and experts, are not desirable,” says Dr. Gerald Gaß, executive director of the German Hospital Society (DKG) at BILD.
His promise: “Every seriously ill person, whether Covid or not, will receive adequate care in clinics. A total overload of our health system or even triage will not be foreseeable in the coming weeks. Nor is there a threat that it will end. the supply “.
Photo: Picture Alliance / Geisler-Fotopress
“data-zoom-src =” https://bilder.bild.de/photos/dr-gerald-gass-vorstandsvorsitzender-der-deutschen-krankenhausgesellschaft-dkg-9ba03ede4f514d91a49c1ec75e22754d-75942778/Bild/6.bild.jpg ” Dr. Gerald Gaß, Executive Director of the German Hospital Society (DKG)Photo: Picture Alliance / Geisler-Fotopress
► The fact is: Since March 13, the number of corona patients to be treated in an intensive care unit has increased, slowly at first, now more rapidly. On Good Friday, 3,849 patients with a crown were in the intensive care unit. At the same time, the DIVI intensive care registry reports 3,534 immediately available, free intensive care beds and an emergency reserve of more than 10,000 beds.
Even the fact that there are more Covid patients than at the height of the second wave, that is, almost 5,800 Corona patients, would have to be treated in intensive care, “would not mean overload,” Gaß said. “In fact, we have more capacity in intensive care units than in the second wave. The big problem of corona failures and quarantine orders within the workforce is virtually eliminated, ”explains the head of DKG.
In addition, there are effective control elements, such as the postponement of selective medical measures: “In an emergency, we have to close the standard care as in the first wave and concentrate the capacities in the care of Covid patients.”
However, this number of patients “is not desirable in any way” and can be prevented by smart measures for testing and vaccinating, Gaß said: “The German health system is very efficient. We are not at the absolute limit! “
DIVI sees a dramatic setting
If you look at the DIVI numbers, the world looks completely different!
According to DIVI’s forecasting model, it is already certain that the number of patients in intensive care will rise to more than 4,500. “That is inevitable,” says Professor Christian Karagiannidis, scientific director of the DIVI intensive care registry.
If only then a strict lockdown were decided, the number of patients could still be captured at just over 5,000, according to the estimate. “If we wait a little longer and only stop at an incidence of 300 in late April or early May, we will see more than 6,000 people with COVID-19 in intensive care. I dare to doubt that we can do that, ”Karagiannidis warned, and this is NOT explicitly a black mark.
Threatening scenarios the wrong way
However, the head of DKG believes that getting the population to comply with the restriction of contact with threatening scenarios is an incorrect tactic. Gaß to BILD: “I would like to give better information to citizens and not threaten them with dramatic figures. For example, that there are also positive developments that are often not discussed. “
The number of deaths has decreased significantly in relation to infections. This is also confirmed by the numbers: although the number of infections has increased since mid-February, the number of deaths from corona continues to decline seven weeks after the start of the third wave; Until now, the development of deaths had followed the wave of infections about four weeks after the wave.
“One of the first effects of the vaccine”, is sure Gaß.
The head of the DGK sees vaccination as the main solution to the pandemic. Gaß to BILD: “We have to protect as many people as possible against serious diseases, so the Permanent Commission on Vaccination and the Paul Ehrlich Institute must have the courage to prioritize the first vaccination. The motto should be: Full power at the first vaccination! “
