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Virologist Norbert Nowotny doesn’t think there will be fewer infections with rising temperatures. Very little is known about the seasonality of the corona virus.
9.43 am, February 26, 2021
The first days with spring temperatures Not only do they ease the sometimes heavy mood caused by the corona winter, but they also wake you up. Hopes on the positive development of Covid-19 case numbers in warm seasons. Politicians and experts like to talk about “seasonal course“as a helper in the fight against pandemics. However, as with SARS-CoV-2, this may be hard to grasp or evaluate, as the researchers explained.
“Not much is yet known” about the seasonality of the new corona virus SARS-CoV-2. “different scientists say different things about it“explained the virologist Norbert Nowotny of the University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna. He does not believe that there will be fewer infections with rising temperatures: “The The heat just doesn’t “If there are fewer infections in spring and summer, that’s more”indirect effect“.
According to the Environmental Physician Hans-Peter Hutter of the Vienna Medical University the expected “seasonal course” for SARS-CoV-2 “should be clear less pronounced like the flu, “he said.” In general, you don’t really know, “you have to admit, even for them Virologist Elisabeth Puchhammer-Stöckl In Meduni’s Vienna, there is currently a lack of reliable knowledge and reliable new finds. If the expected effect is due to the influence of warmer temperatures on the Transmission routes or the change of behavior of the population, which pushes more abroad in warmer times, said Hutter.
Three ways of contagion
Nowotny recalled the three main routes of transmission: The most important is this Droplet infection, that is, direct infection from person to person at close range. The second most important type of transmission are Aerosol spraysSo tiny droplets in the air with viruses that they are only relevant indoors. And finally there is the possibility of a transfer Smear infections, on the door buckles.
While the seasonality of a virus is “completely irrelevant” with droplet infections, aerosol transmissions and smear infections only occur indoors, where a large proportion of infections occur. “The reason for potentially fewer infections in the summer is that the More people outside are. That’s an indirect effect, “Nowotny emphasized.
In this context, the virologist refers to “New flu“(also” swine flu “or” Mexican flu “). This influenza virus caused a pandemic in 2009/10, regardless of the season – but since its course was milder than the seasonal flu, hardly anyone remembers it. The following year, it turned into the seasonal flu. “So the virus was not extinct, it still exists, but it was seasonal like all other flu viruses that cause infections from December to April. That is exactly what we expect with SARS-CoV-2,” Nowotny said.
Until enough people have one immunity Against it, whether through an infection or a vaccine, Covid-19 will be a pandemic independent of the seasons. “So, as with all respiratory infections, which preferably occur in autumn and winter, we will see this virus every year in autumn and winter, analogous to influenza,” said the virologist. An American study published in the journal “Science” in the summer of 2020 dealt with SARS-CoV-2 in view of the known distribution patterns of conventional cold coronaviruses. Model calculations showed that depending on the immunity present in the population by then, outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 can also be expected in the coming years, especially in winter. And this until the year 2025 and even if the pathogen was largely rejected before that.
Nowotny believes that the low number of cases last summer was due to the fact that “at that time, relatively little virus was still circulating in the population. That is different now, there is a lot of virus circulating today,” he said. The scientist, who is nevertheless in summer, expected a “minor effect” with fewer viral infections, but mainly because people spend less time indoors and not because of the seasonality of the virus.
Simulation researcher Niki Popper from the Technical University (TU) Vienna also expects some effect on the number of infections, as he has said several times in recent weeks. At the same time, he and other experts emphasize that its spread is mainly related to the spread of the infection at the time when the warmer temperatures began: for example, in the US Last year, the figures were relatively high. even during the summer, probably also because they had never before been nearly as low as in this country.
In any case, it is important to maintain a distance of two meters also in summer and outdoors. “I’m not a big fan of the requirement to wear a mask outdoors, but in those cases where it is not possible to maintain distance outdoors, an FFP2 mask would be recommended,” Nowotny says. In December, the researchers reported in the journal “Pnas” that they found correlations between falling daily growth rates and increased ultraviolet radiation, but that they were significantly less than the effects of observing hygiene and distance rules. Other environmental factors such as humidity and temperature did not show a statistically significant relationship with transmission rates in this study.
Already relatively early after the outbreak of the pandemic, there were isolated studies that spoke of the possibility of reduced transmission at higher or even very low temperatures well below zero degrees, as well as possible connections to humidity or air pollution. One study showed, for example, that the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 on smooth surfaces at 20 degrees Celsius dropped by 90 percent in about two days. At twice the outside temperature, this happened in just two to three hours.
For Hutter, the warmer seasons are to be expected to bring some relief. “But you should not rely on the seasonal effect,” warned the environmental doctor. If this vague prospect is announced over a large area, this could again go against the already emerging willingness to follow containment measures.
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