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The beginning of the new relationship is by no means carefree (By Verena Schmitt-Roschmann, Silvia Kusidlo, Christoph Meyer and Larissa Schwedes / dpa)
At 2:44 pm on Christmas Eve the time had come. A Brexit deal under the Christmas tree. Finally. It was a last minute breakthrough and, in human terms, the final twist in the never-ending story of Britain’s exit from the European Union. Just seven days before the dreaded “fall off the cliff”, the EU and Britain managed to reach a trade pact for the period from January 1, 2021.
Customs duties and new economic disruptions at the beginning of the year should be off the table after the deal, if the pact is applied provisionally for now, because the EU does not have time to ratify it. The hundreds of page contract creates the basis for future cooperation in trade and fisheries, but also in matters of justice, police and energy. But it is also clear that the relationship is no longer as close as it used to be, not even as close as it was once wanted. There is minimal consensus for an uncertain new beginning.
The latest round of negotiations lived up to the constant back and forth since the British vote on Brexit on June 23, 2016. As early as Wednesday afternoon, the agreement was said to be close. But for the last few meters, negotiators at the Berlaymont commission building in Brussels needed another night and half a day. Floated pizza out of cardboard boxes.
Even a few hours before the end, there was talk of problems and obstacles, sleight of hand and loss of confidence. But then he said to himself: We have a deal. Both sides celebrated the breakthrough almost simultaneously, but already separately in Brussels and London. Prime Minister Boris Johnson raised his arms in the air and jerked his thumb up: that was his photo of the day on Twitter. His government emphasizes that all the goals associated with Brexit have been achieved.
In Brussels, the head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, praised the strong negotiating position of the EU and was sure: “With this agreement we are making history.” But there was also a bit of sadness in both of them. “Goodbye is such a sweet sadness,” said von der Leyen. Johnson, with a matching tie for the eternal discussion about fish, responded with the promise: “We will be your friend.” But everyone knows: something is over. Now it really is Brexit.
Shortly after the British referendum, the EU still had the illusion that the British would remain in the EU internal market and in the customs union, which would have brought the least amount of economic losses. After all, business relationships are extremely close. More than half of Britain’s imports (52 percent) came from the EU last year. It was worth 374,000 million pounds (about 414,000 million euros). At the same time, the kingdom exported goods worth around 294 billion pounds (about 325 billion euros) to the mainland, a 43 percent share of all British exports.
Former Prime Minister Theresa May left at least one back door open to the customs union during her negotiations on the EU exit treaty. But he couldn’t find a majority in his Conservative party, where tough Brexiters always smelled of treason. His rival Boris Johnson took over and divorced the EU on January 31, with an exit agreement. But the big question remained: what will happen after the agreed transition phase starting in 2021?
Johnson said he wanted to make Brexit an “incredible success.” He kept everything else open. Sometimes he spoke of a trade agreement like the one the EU has with Canada, sometimes of “Australian terms” without a contract. Sometimes he set deadlines that were later missed. Sometimes he would get up angrily from the negotiating table and soon he would sit there again.
The EU was stoic. He promised an unlimited free trade agreement without tariffs, but with clear conditions: fair competition and access to British fishing grounds. These were the most difficult points until the end. The main negotiators, Michel Barnier and David Frost, turned endless circles on the same questions over and over again: subsidy rules and adjustment mechanisms, dispute resolution and fishing quotas, floating and near-bottom fish, transition times. The dispute became more and more detailed.
Johnson, however, always sought the great vision of the Brexiteers: independence, sovereignty, control over his own limits and rules. Freedom from EU guidelines. He hesitated until the last minute, apparently speaking nonchalantly about the No Deal and enthusiastically assuring that Britain would “flourish mightily” in one form or another. The statements contrasted with the forecasts of economic experts.
The UK was shaken by the crown crisis. Nearly 80,000 people have now died there with or by Corona, and now a terrifying new variant of the Corona virus is also spreading. The health system is on edge. The British government itself has predicted a historic 11.3 percent economic decline this year due to the pandemic. A no-deal would have made everything much worse.
Researchers at King’s College London estimated that an exit without a deal would have hit the British economy two to three times harder than the Corona crisis. Finally, border closures due to a mutated variant of the virus and gigantic truck jams in recent days gave a preview of what the failures could look like in January.
So now the deal. The pact will mitigate the consequences of the economic breakdown, avoid tariffs and curb costs. The fall into the unknown is saved. Tens of thousands of jobs that would have been at risk from an unregulated Brexit now have a chance.
But the beginning of a harmonious cooperation would certainly look different. Many in Brussels are angered by Johnson’s tactics. The European Parliament feels expelled because there is no more time to ratify the treaty. You are buying “a pig in a push” and democratic rights are being undermined, complains not only the Brexit expert on the left, Martin Schirdewan.
There are also new controls and formalities at the borders with agreements, because the rules previously guaranteed in the internal market now have to be painstakingly reviewed. Supply chains will no longer work so well. A quick change to a new job in London is becoming increasingly difficult. Much will be readjusted politically. This divorce was hardly lacking in the War of the Roses. The year of separation was tough. Now they both limp into a new time.
