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The number of unreported cases of corona infection is high. In November, 3.1% of the population aged 16 and over were infected. This is demonstrated by the first interim results of the current national COVID-19 prevalence study, which Statistics Austria is carrying out on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research and in cooperation with the Austrian Red Cross and the Medical University of Vienna .
The raw sample of the study comprised a total of 7,823 people aged 16 and over living in private households. Of these, 2,504 people had agreed to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 on an agreed date for the end of October.
From November 12 to 14, 2,263 people were sampled from the nasopharynx. In 48 people, PCR analysis of the smear was positive. A follow-up survey of people who did not show up at the time of the test showed that at that time at least 24 people were in officially ordered quarantine due to a positive test result. In total, at least 72 people in the sample were infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in the period from November 12 to 14, 2020.
The projected total number of infections for November 12-14, 2020 is 228,000. That corresponds to one 3.1% of the population aged 16 and over living in private households. Taking into account the range of statistical fluctuation, this value is between 166,000 and 295,000 infected people or a prevalence of 2.2% to 4.0%.
The prevalence in western Austria (Tyrol, Vorarlberg, Salzburg, Upper Austria) is significantly higher than in eastern Austria (Vienna, Lower Austria, Burgenland).
“Massive evidence is urgently needed”
Heinz Faßmann, Federal Minister for Education, Science and Research says: “The comparatively high number of unreported cases shows us that instruments such as the upcoming massive tests are urgently needed to break the chains of infection and contain the spread of the pandemic. Asymptomatic people are also infectious and can transmit the virus. With mass testing, we want to locate as many of these people as possible so that they cannot infect other people. “
The number of unreported cases is higher in the west than in the east
Statistics Austria Director General Tobias Thomas adds: “In mid-November, the proportion of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the Austrian resident population aged 16 years and over averaged 3.1%. The proportions in western Austria were significantly higher than in eastern Austria. Compared to the latest prevalence studies in April and May, this shows a considerable increase in the number of infections shortly before the second block. “
In the study carried out by SORA in early April, based on extrapolation, a maximum of 0.8% of people aged 16 years and over in private homes in Austria were infected. At the end of April and the end of May, the share fell below 0.2%.
55 percent of infections are not officially registered
55% of infections shortly before the second confinement were not officially registered, and most of them are asymptomatic
Between November 12 and 14, 2020, between 166,000 and 295,000 people in Austria were infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Less than half of the SARS-CoV-2 infections detected in the study (around 103,000) were already known to the authorities according to the information of the people interviewed or analyzed in the study (people in official quarantine with positive results in the tests, as well as people who had previously had one tested positive and tested positive repeatedly in this study). From this it can be deduced that around 55% of acute infections are not detected by the authorities.
