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Weddings, baptisms, cattle herding: with almost 60 percent of private households they are the main source of infection.
A baptism in Tyrol or a cattle drive in Carinthia: two illustrative case studies of coronavirus infection in calendar week 40, presented by Crown Commission Chairman Ulrich Herzog at the press conference of the traffic light. They come from AGES ‘new cluster analysis, which makes a significant contribution to the commission’s assessment and continues to show the household as the leading source of infection with nearly 60 percent of cases.
“School as a place of infection is wrong,” Herzog said. Education groups would increase, Herzog said, but it would be teachers, educators or supervisors who are bringing the SARS-CoV-2 virus with them. Figures from the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES) for week 40 (September 28 to October 4) show 430 clusters with 1573 identified cases, but only 14 are found with 71 cases (4.5 percent) within the framework of education. However, with 252 clusters, almost 60 percent is assigned to the household, with 709 the proportion of cases being around 45 percent. 87 clusters fell into the leisure area, which represents 20.2 percent of the clusters with a total of 374 cases. In the current analysis, the field of work came in third. Here 29 clusters were identified (6.7 percent of all clusters), there were a total of 155 work-related SARS-CoV-2 cases.
Finding a group makes sense because it makes it easier to contain the spread of the virus and assess the epidemiological development of the SARS-CoV2 infection. Cluster analyzes affect not only the corona traffic light, but also measurements in the regional area, as Herzog explained. In current examples, for example, there is a friendly football match in Burgenland with a Slovakian club as a guest, one of which was infected but still showing no signs of disease (presymptomatic phase). The infection took place after the game: during a social gathering, five of the hosts became infected; one of the players subsequently infected three family members. This and other examples would also show the population where and how infections occur.
Cluster Analysis Tool for Corona Commission
“At large, organized events, there are hardly any infections because there are clear security concepts,” Herzog explained. In any case, the case had been followed, on the Corona traffic light website there is an addition for the district of Neusiedl am See in the section “Additional measures”, which is in effect from this Wednesday: “At sporting events, canteens on sports fields can only dispense food and drinks outside, strange canteens Do not enter the canteens on sports fields during sporting events. The canteen must be closed at the end of the game. “
Cluster analysis is an important tool for the Crown Commission; According to the WHO, a cluster is defined by an accumulation of cases by time or place or an accumulation of cases that are characterized by a common exposure, for example, a joint trip – the known travel clusters of In summer, or attending a leisure event, such as the aforementioned Almabtrieb.
Depending on its origin, the weight of a cluster affects the recommendation of the Crown Commission to change the traffic light, the weight of a case with a travel association is lower because the origin is not local. In the traffic light manual, there are correction factors ranging from 7-day gross case numbers to decisive “risk-adjusted” case numbers when evaluating regions. The 62 per 100,000 for week 40 became 42 due to various “risk discounts”, as can be seen from the current working paper.
Asymptomatic case or not?
The evaluation also includes whether a case is asymptomatic or not, the former means a correction factor of 0.5. The question “how do we handle it?” Will still have to be asked in the future, said the commission chairman, because there is still no scientific evidence to determine whether such a case is not really infectious. According to a current cohort study, this is often the case for children under the age of 15, Herzog says. An asymptomatic case may also be in a presymptomatic phase, a time before the patient becomes contagious to others.
There were asymptotic cases at week 40 with a 26 percent share in Austria; in the individual federal states, the values range from twelve in Vorarlberg to 44 in Burgenland. This is also related to the intensity of the test, especially when tracking Category 1 contact persons, that is, those who have had close contact with infected people. For example, in larger conglomerates, such as companies, the proportion of asymptomatic clusters is much higher, Herzog explained.
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