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Experts at the Agency for Food Safety and Health (AGES) are assuming an increase in the number of sick people of 6.5 percent per day, compared to 1.7 percent the previous week. An infected person infects an average of 1.25 more people.
In the previous week the value of the effective reproduction number R0 was 1.02, which 14 days ago was 1.14. The two values are based on data from the laboratory diagnosis date for the 13-day period up to and including September 9 and are based on 4,702 Sars-CoV-2 cases in this period. The publication update “Epidemiological parameters of the COVID19 outbreak, Austria, 2020” was created by AGES and the Institute of Statistics of the Vienna University of Technology and is based on data from the Austrian Epidemiological Reporting System (EMS).
Based on the new data, which was calculated from information from the Austrian health system’s electronic reporting system (EMS), Tyrol and Upper Austria are likely to be hit the hardest. Here a rate of increase of 25.1 percent per day is assumed. The doubling time of the number of diseases is 3.1 days, the base reproduction number is 1.93.
Achieving an R0 value below a factor of 1 would be decisive in suppressing the wave of Covid 19 disease. In Lower Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg, the effective number of reproductions has been greater than 1 since mid-August, but with exceptions daily in the last two federal states. For Vienna it has already been above 1 since the beginning of July and is currently 1.33; as of September there is also a tendency to increase, which is also reflected in the number of new cases diagnosed every day.
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