Vienna researchers have been running their own “Corona traffic light” – Coronavirus Vienna – since April

The waves rose around the first change of the traffic light in Corona. Especially in Linz the color of the “yellow” traffic light could not be understood. For complexity researcher Peter Klimek there are good reasons for this classification, but the many indicators make it difficult to understand. Methodologically everything is clear here, however, the political classification is a different matter.

Scientists from the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and the Vienna Medical University have been running a specially developed “Corona traffic light” since April. Cases that tested positive per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days are broken down by district, and development can be tracked throughout the day using a timeline. “Although we are the Complexity Science Hub, our traffic light has little to do with complexity,” Klimek said in an interview with the APA.

In contrast, the government’s traffic light with indicators for tracking contacts, the number of tests, and the hospital’s capabilities takes much more information into account. That “definitely makes sense because the infection process is very complex,” says the scientist.

“Our system was designed to have a rapidly available regional information system. That it has developed a life of its own also surprised us,” Klimek said. To avoid confusion, explanatory text has been added to the website with a link to the government traffic light from the start of the official traffic light.

If the already controversial first change of the traffic light commission with Vienna, Linz, Graz and the Tyrolean district of Kufstein turned four regions to yellow (“medium risk”), this applies to the CSH traffic light for much of Austria. As of September 8, all state capitals, except Klagenfurt, are at least yellow (between one and ten cases per 10,000 inhabitants). Recently, two capitals, Vienna and Innsbruck, have been colored red, resulting in more than ten cases per 10,000 inhabitants in the last two-week cycle.

“Basically higher numbers are expected in urban areas, and this is also increasingly reflected in Austria,” Klimek emphasized. This is due, for example, to the trend towards a greater number of people in precarious life and work situations in cities or to the fact that when temperatures drop, urban life shifts even more towards closed spaces. In contrast to the beginning of the epidemic, “now we have a basic level of activity everywhere. This is also the initial difficult situation with which we are entering in autumn.”

In the case of the much criticized classification of the capital of the state of Upper Austria, the course over time played a role, according to the researcher. Although there are not as many cases currently registered there, “the number of cases has been much more sustainable and over a longer period of time.” Also, the proportion of people with the SARS-CoV-2 virus who brought the SARS-CoV-2 virus on vacation was around 30 percent lower in Linz than elsewhere (mostly around 60 percent ). “That means there is much more background dynamics in Linz than in the case of other state capitals. The virus was able to create a broader base there,” said the complexity researcher.

In principle, the discussion on this is good, because hopefully soon this will lead to a system in which it is easier to understand why and where what preventive measures are proposed and implemented. An important key for the coming months lies in the transparency of the regional structuring of the severity of the measures: “A traffic light can deliver that in one way or another.” The political procedure around this is still being negotiated, “at a methodological level the matter is quite clear,” Klimek said.

In general, more attention should be paid to how complex information about Covid-19 is communicated to the population and is presented visually. “Because the likelihood that we will ever need stricter measures again, at least in individual regions, is relatively high.” Here it is important to argue objectively, to emphasize the meaning of the restrictions and not to rely on fear and threats of punishment, says the scientist.

To the “Semaphore Corona” of the CSH

The official government traffic light