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“The tests take too long”, criticizes the expert in simulation Niki Popper, who in the third week of September could have a notable increase in cases.
Again there was a slight increase in new coronavirus infections in Austria. In the last 24 hours, 272 people tested positive for Covid-19. On Sunday there were 181 new infections, the day before including 395 cases. 3,479 people in Austria are currently infected with Sars-CoV-2, the Interior Ministry reported on Monday.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, 27,438 positive results have been recorded in Austria. As of Monday (9:30 am), 733 people with or from the consequences of Covid-19 had died and 23,226 had recovered. There are currently 154 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, 31 of whom are in the intensive care unit.
Most of the new infections were again recorded in Vienna with 167 cases, followed by Lower Austria with 32 and Upper Austria and Tyrol with 22 cases each. Twelve cases were recorded in Styria, ten cases in Salzburg, three in Burgenland and two in Carinthia and Vorarlberg.
The age structure of those infected is increasingly shifting towards those between 15 and 30 years of age. About half of the new infections fell in this age group in mid-August. At the beginning of the epidemic, the focus was on people aged 45-60 and those aged 60-75.
Expert: “Potentially difficult” fall
That’s one reason why simulation researcher Niki Popper from the Technical University (TU) Vienna expects a “potentially difficult propagation situation” in the fall. The current “youth dynamic” could also lead to older risk groups facing the virus more again, he says.
By then, at the latest, the development will also be reflected in a multiplication of people needing hospitalization or intensive treatment, Popper said. Based on the experiences of recent months, Popper does not see problematic effects on the health system, especially hospitalizations, “because the therapy is much more efficient than in spring.”
However, it is essential to see the spread: “The pressure is already higher than it was then. One of the reasons for this is that this time we did not start with zero or two cases, but now we have a lot of herds spread out and probably more numbers. of unreported cases “. Popper said. According to the models, the fact that the number of cases is not currently increasing is probably due to the structure of the clusters, the “back pressure” that the measures still exert and the current sufficient isolation of positive cases.
If indoor activities with larger crowds were to start again in fall and winter tourism and the flu season started with falling temperatures, the spread would change and the measures taken would no longer work.
“The tests take too long”
With the test and follow-up strategy (TTI strategy), Popper sees the need to catch up, especially in regards to the potential increase in the number of cases in the fall. “Testing takes too long, it’s still unclear who is being tested and why, and based on the numbers available, contact tracking is likely to be very different in the federal states,” says Popper, who currently has “Many mini epidemics” see “what we could actually also have under control. The instruments are there, only the interaction” just doesn’t work enough.
Popper points to a positive property of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which is estimated to be widely distributed via “super-spreaders.” If you get the super spreaders from contact nets, you can control the spread much better than with other diseases, the researcher emphasized.
“So everyone says the schools are to blame”
In the calculations of Popper’s new model, under worsening conditions, there is a notable increase around the third week of September. Popper: “So everyone says the schools are to blame”, although the reasons are more complex. The researcher does not expect an actual second wave, but rather a “meander” that increases rapidly again in the models after a certain point in time. “In the simulations, the increase depends directly on the interaction between the measures taken to reduce contact, distance and hygiene, as well as the TTI strategy. If one factor increases as a result of development, you have to work on the other”, said the expert.
In schools, for example, it is important to avoid class confusion; In winter tourism, smart visitor control concepts are required and indoor après-ski is not required. “In the end, however, detection and an effective strategy to disrupt propagation networks are crucial.”
(THAN)
