Japan: who will succeed Shinzo Abe after his retirement?

As a farewell, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 65, once again performed the patriotic ritual he loves so much. For a few seconds he stared at the Japanese sun banner, then stood in front of the blue curtain in the press room of his official residence and announced his resignation.

Now what political Tokyo has been speculating for days has come true.

Abe justified the move with his poor health, with the chronic intestinal disease that plagued him since his youth. Personally, you may feel sorry for that. For Japan, however, Abe’s departure is overdue. The country needs a new beginning: politically and economically.

Wanted: reform-minded outsider

Now we have to see who will be the successor and if he can seize the opportunity. The next few days should be exciting in Tokyo. Abe wants to remain in office until Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects a new prime minister. It is not yet clear how this will be done, either through internal party elections or after consulting with leaders. If the candidate is internally devised, the following Abe allies have the best chances:

1. Finanzminister Taro Aso, 79,

2. Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, 63 years old,

3. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, 71.

You can hardly expect a new game from them. Should the successor be chosen through an internal party competition of ideas, reform-minded outsiders will also have opportunities, notably: former Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 63, and Defense Minister Taro Kono, of 57.

No Japanese prime minister has ruled Japan as long as Abe, on Friday it was 2803 days. But aside from the length of his tenure, he has little to show for it in the history books.

In late 2012 it was proposed to “restore” Japan. He promised to make Japan a “beautiful country.” He often looked for recipes for this in the mythical past, when his own grandfather, the post-war prime minister, Nobusuke Kishi, ruled. That couldn’t work from the beginning.

Failed in economic, foreign and energy policy

Abe himself admitted today that he had not implemented his most important projects. Above all, he mentioned the postwar pacifist constitution of 1946, which was handed down almost word for word to Japan by the American occupiers. Abe wanted to replace it with a document based on traditional values. His objective was to arm Japan morally and militarily.

Abe wanted to take advantage of the economic miracle of the sixties and seventies. As it had already worked back then, he wanted to cheer on the island country, especially with the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. But the sporting event had to be postponed for a year due to Corona. But even without the epidemic, this traditional type of growth policy was too shortsighted.

Because Japan today is shrinking, it is aging faster than any other leading industrial country. Abe’s successors face the difficult task of having to think of a completely new economic policy. For a country that is barely growing.

That will not be easy. Because Abe has turned Japan into a one-man event for almost eight years. Hardly anyone dared to express new ideas in their conservative PLD. The parliamentary opposition is weak and deeply divided.

The media, which already tend to censor themselves, have been intimidated. Time and time again Abe fell into twilight due to political scandals. Also for this reason, his remaining term would have been uncomfortable for him.

It is even more urgent for Japan to quickly get a prime minister who is tackling the most pressing issue: Crown. The number of infected people is increasing again, especially in Tokyo. This is also due to the Abe government’s often chaotic crisis management. Abe tried for a long time to downplay the crisis, also ahead of the Olympics, which he only canceled under international pressure. Assistance promised to businesses and households in need was often paid off slowly or late. The fact that Japan has handled the pandemic relatively lightly so far is largely due to cultural reasons. The people of the islands depend on cohesion and mutual consideration in crises. Basic hygiene rules, such as the use of masks, are common in Japan.

Fukushima is out of control

But over the course of Corona, all the everyday problems are now coming to light, which Abe has long covered with beautiful words. The economy, which it stimulated with the help of an ultra-flexible monetary policy, is propped up towards recession. Projected for the year as a whole, national economic production collapsed 27.8 percent in the second quarter. Now he took revenge for Abe’s continuing to proclaim new slogans, but was reluctant to follow them with real reforms. “Abenomics” – as the prime minister called his policy of printing money – should only be named.

As a representative example, Abes was unable to cope with the reactor meltdown, which radioactively contaminated much of northeastern Japan in March 2011. In running for the Olympics in the fall of 2013, Abe claimed to have the situation at the damaged nuclear power plant. of Fukushima Daiichi “under control”. But in reality, polluted groundwater accumulates in the ruins every day. The project should keep generations busy. However, the prime minister continued to depend on nuclear power. Instead of promoting alternative energy, his government put obsolete reactors back on the grid, against the will of the majority of the population. At the same time, Japan built more coal-fired power plants than in a long time.

Abe promised a lot, but kept little: he wanted to create a society in which “women shine.” But in his own cabinet, the number of the already few female ministers continued to decline throughout his tenure. Under Abe, more and more housewives entered the job market, most of them as part-time workers. But that had little to do with equality. Many people had few options.

Most of the Japanese were once included in the middle class. But the gap between rich and poor is growing. The stock market boom, which Abe pushed with his loose credit policy, intensified the struggle for survival, which by the way is also forcing more and more elderly people to work in Japan. Abe’s “work miracle” fades: Thanks to Corona, many of the low-paying jobs are no longer available.

Nationalistic behavior

Abe’s successor must now also address Japan’s foreign policy isolation. The nationalist prime minister repeatedly offended neighboring China and South Korea with his patriotic behavior. In December 2013, he made a pilgrimage to the Yasukuni Shrine, where major war criminals are also worshiped. At the recent memorial service for the victims of World War II on August 15 in Tokyo, he did not say a word of remorse. Its foreign policy is based entirely on the protection of the United States, the former occupying power. Abe cultivated friendship with US President Donald Trump like almost no one else. But many of Abe’s party friends now doubt his reliability.