Expert: Corona numbers in Vienna not to worry – Coronavirus Vienna

For simulation expert Niki Popper, more crown infections in Vienna are not a concern. As long as you know where the cases occur, this is not a problem, Popper said Wednesday on “Ö3”.

For a city of two million, Vienna has had unusually low numbers for a long time, and the same applies to new infections: “As long as local effects are identified and as long as you find the group, it’s not a problem,” Popper said. It would be troublesome if you couldn’t explain them. “We need the processes everywhere that we test quickly, that the tests are evaluated quickly, and that we also take action,” thus quarantining family and work.

According to the official Corona panel of the Ministry of Health, there are currently 1,069 Corona patients in Austria. In Vienna, 539 people contracted the coronavirus, followed by Styria with 193 cases.

In view of the wider opening of schools on Monday (May 18), simulation expert Niki Popper of the Technical University of Vienna advocates monitoring the development of any Covid disease 19 as closely as possible. This includes augmented and educator-specific tests, as well as quick reactions when clusters of infection develop there, Popper told APA.

“Currently we do not have a large-scale epidemic development. However, we still have to be careful when the numbers change in a federal state,” said the expert from the Technical University (TU) of Vienna and the spin-off from TU Vienna. Together with those of the Vienna Medical University, the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, the Ministry of Health uses their calculations as a basis for decision-making. The current situation with few cases is somewhat reminiscent of the beginning of the epidemic in Austria, where imported cases from abroad dominated the panorama, because the models do not show real dynamics.

If there are frequent cases in such situations, this is particularly worrying if, to some extent, they arise from scratch every day. However, in one region, if you only have to deal with a few new cases where you know where your origin is, it’s not too bad because “it can quickly remove people from the network,” Popper said. In such a situation, you need to think carefully about “where you are looking”, in other words, test more often.

If schools and kindergartens are visited more frequently again, it makes sense for the mathematician to direct the focus of the test there. “In the model, open schools naturally lead to more contacts and more outreach,” Popper explained. Fortunately, however, since children and adolescents tend to develop minor illnesses, the pressure on the health system increases less than in other groups. To further minimize potential transmission, especially to the grandparent generation, “we say: if the resources are there, it would be good to focus on kindergartens or teachers to identify groups.” However, if the testing capabilities are sufficient, this also applies to all other areas that are open. The path through educators makes sense in this case because it is difficult to assess children practically from scratch.

If he later finds a group in a school, he must “lock school classes quickly and efficiently, for example. And we have to learn that the specific approach is not a new crisis, because this strategy makes it possible to open more areas,” Popper emphasized. , who also expects a learning effect from previous experiences with the virus. It should not be forgotten that the testing capabilities have increased compared to March and the results are there faster. The model clearly shows that a containment measure, for example 48 hours after the occurrence, is “incredibly much more effective” than after approximately five days.

In their calculations, the researchers still assume the same risk of infection in children and adults. There are also signs and hopes that children and teens “may be much less contagious.” Unfortunately, there is still a lack of internationally reliable scientific knowledge. “But we will only find the necessary evidence if we now open the schools again and expand our knowledge,” Popper said.

Therefore, gradual opening is “the right way” for the researcher, even if it is sometimes very difficult from an organizational point of view for the parents. The first effects of the larger school openings would likely be visible in the data in June. Fear is out of place, but caution is recommended. Even if you don’t see anything right now, you can’t give the go-ahead for the school area. Because it continues to apply: In broadcast scenarios, little can happen for a long time, and then suddenly everything happens very quickly.