The U.S. national team knows its way to get to Qatar, and ASN’s Brian Sciaretta walks you through it and explores the most important takeaways.
DUE TO
Brian Sciaretta
Placed
August 19, 2020
6:05 p.m.
CONCACAF HELD ITS sign for World Cup qualification and the United States national learned most of his path that it hopes will lead to a key in Qatar for the World Cup in 2022. Most of the path was already known, but the formal drawing revealed some interesting leaks – such as a potential revenge match to open the campaign and a very difficult end awaits in 2022.
Not all opponents are known yet. The U.S. teams are one of five teams already qualified for the Octagon that will replace the Hex. The remaining three teams will be determined in previous rounds taking place before next summer.
With that said, here is the best judgment for the 14-game qualifying plan
- June 2021: @ Trinidad and Tobago / El Salvador *
- June 2021: Canada / Haiti *
- June 2021: @ Honduras
- June 2021: Jamaica
- September 2021: @ Panama / Dominican Rep./Guatemala/Curacau*
- September 2021: Costa Rica
- October 2021: Mexico
- October 2021: @ Jamaica
- November 2021: Trinidad and Tobago / El Salvador *
- November 2021: @ Canada / Haiti *
- January 2022: Honduras
- January 2022: @ Mexico
- March 2022: Panama / Dominican Rep./Guatemala/Curacau*
- March 2022: @ Costa Rica
* names the most likely opponents from the previous round. There are “smaller” national teams with the potential to go to the Octagon.
Here are a few thoughts on the sign
Welcome to an Opener of Trinidad and Tobago
There is a very realistic chance that the United States will open World Cup qualifiers with a road matchup at Trinidad and Tobago. Everyone knows it was the low point of the program in October 2017. Despite all this, opening in Trinidad would be great news for the American team. Yes, there would be all sorts of stories about you having to experience this game, but the theme “revenge” type plays into the hands of the American team.
The American team would not look forward to this time and this game would provide the opportunity to create a new narrative and turn the page of 2017. It would therefore provide an opportunity to use the revenge for a winning start in the Octagon as opposed to the two losses that the last Hex opened.
Dreech ein makes June 2021 Key
Two of the last three games are the toughest games the American team has ever played – away from Costa Rica and away from Mexico. These are two locations where the American team has never won a World Cup qualifier. The American team cannot be in a stage where it needs more than three points in the last three games. The last home game is critical, but any points it can get from the visits to Costa Rica and Mexico should be considered as a bonus.
Much of the avoidance of the stress of going to Mexico and Costa Rica and not needing points comes from a strong opening. The first four games in June are realistic and the goal should be nine points – win both home games and win at least one of the road games.
Pivotal stretch
Winning home games is so important and the losses at home to Costa Rica and Mexico were really the most striking declines last cycle compared to the successful campaigns in previous cycles.
In this cycle, the two games are played consecutively – at home against Costa Rica to close the September window and at home against Mexico to open the October window.
These two games will determine whether qualifying is easy or hard. Six points and qualification will surely be the easier side. Four points, it’s still probably okay. Three points, it could be dicey. Anyway, it’s going to be a nail-biter in the final games – which are tough.
Many Venues in the mix
As always, the topic of where to hold these games will be intense and fans across the country will be hoping the American team comes to town for a qualifying match.
There are the usual World Cup qualifying venues and it’s probably a safer bet to see the eight qualifying venues come from smaller markets, with the exception of Audi Field in Washington, DC and CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Seattle is a city that supports the American team well and Washington, DC is a historic location for the American team.
Larger cities such as Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Miami, the Boston area, and the New York / New Jersey area are likely to go to Gold Cup venues and typically draw no pro-American crowds.
The best judgment we can make is that the eight most likely locations for the U.S. team in these qualifiers will likely come from the MLS locations in these 11 cities:
- San Jose
- Sandy, Utah
- Kansas City
- Washington, DC
- Seattle
- Portland
- Orlando
- Columbus
- Minnesota
- Cincinnati
- Commerce City, CO
Cincinnati is new to the mix and its new stadium is underway. The American team has been playing well in Orlando and Minnesota lately, while Utah, Commerce City and Kansas City are reliable options these days.
What will be particularly interesting is the home ground for the game in Mexico in October. The last five cycles it has gone to Columbus and it could very well return to the capital of Ohio. The American team does not have many enduring traditions, but one of the better ones is that the home Mexican qualifier will be played in Columbus. It would be nice to go through that.
But Mapfre Stadium is in its final full season of use in 2020 and the new stadium is set to open next summer. If the game returns to Mexico in Mexico, would it be a farewell to Mapfre or a hello to the new stadium?
2021: Summer of football
Next June and July will be adjusted to a massive two months in American football.
- June: Four massive Word Cup qualifiers for the U.S. team
- June: U-20 World Cup (pending qualification)
- July: Golden Cup
- July: Summer Olympics for the U-23 national team (pending qualification)
How the rosters balance will be difficult for Gregg Berhalter and Jason Kreis, especially if the U-23 team qualifies for the Olympics.
Without a doubt, the top priority will be placed on the World Cup qualifiers (and if practice matches take place before these games). That will take up most of June.
It’s hard to see many (as one) clubs for top U-23 players who are also on the full national team, who also agree to set players free for the Olympics. Between the qualifiers and the Olympics, this would mean that players would play 8 to 11 games, not including tune-up friendly matches.
As for the Gold Cup, that would also be a heavy burden on players to play in this tournament plus the World Cup qualifiers. Releases for this are mandatory, but is it wise for Berhalter to take such heavy tax services over two months in one summer?
That being said, between the four tournaments (should the American team qualify), there is a chance a large number of players will represent the United States next summer.
World Cup qualifying hiatus
If the final qualifying match of the US team of this cycle ends in Costa Rica, it is hard to imagine, but that will be the team’s last qualifying match for almost seven years. With the hosting of the 2026 edition, the American team will have an automatic passage into the tournament.
In addition, this is the last time the American team will be eligible for a tournament with 32 teams. The next time the US plays a qualifying match, for the 2030 tournament, it will be for a tournament with 48 teams and that will be even more forgiving than it already is.
