CAIRO – Every day, seasonal rain hits the lush northern highlands of Ethiopia, sending waterfalls into the Blue Nile, the tributary tributary of perhaps Africa’s most legendary river.
Further down, water rises above the concrete wall of a towering $ 4.5 billion hydroelectric dam across the Nile, the largest in Africa, now nearing completion. A time that Ethiopians have eagerly anticipated for a decade, and that Egyptians have feared, has finally come.
Satellite images released this week showed water pouring into the reservoir behind Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam, which will be almost twice as tall as the Statue of Liberty. Ethiopia hopes the project will double its electricity production, strengthen its economy and help unify its people at a time of often violent divisions.
#FillTheDam read a popular hashtag on Ethiopian social media this week.
Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopia’s water minister, hastened to calm Egyptian anxieties by insisting that the flooded reservoir was the product of completely predictable and natural seasonal floods.
He said that the formal start of filling, when the engineers close the dam gates, has not yet occurred. Indeed, that will be the time when Ethiopia launches its grand project and gains tremendous control over the flow of the waters of the Nile into Egypt.
Despite those guarantees, downstream in Egypt, which depends on the Nile for 90 percent of its water, the images sparked dismay.
For almost a decade, Egypt has been negotiating with Ethiopia on how the dam should be filled and operated. The latest, latest effort ended unfinished Monday, and the satellite photos, combined with news reports from Ethiopia, fueled speculation that the dam reservoir had, in fact, begun to fill up.
“The question is: what shall we do?” Television presenter Nashat el-Dihi said Wednesday on Egypt’s private Ten TV station. “People are concerned, and that concern must have an influence.”
Egypt’s fears are amplified by repeated insistence by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that his country will close the dam’s doors later this month, no matter what happens.
“If Ethiopia does not fill the dam, it means Ethiopia has agreed to demolish the dam,” Abiy told lawmakers on July 7.
Although the dam reservoir will take at least seven years to fill, the start of the process has acquired great importance for both countries: a hydrological Rubicon that, if crossed without agreement, could lead their dispute in a new and unpredictable direction.
At the United Nations last month, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry reiterated warnings that his country viewed it as an issue of “existential” importance.
“Survival is not a matter of choice, but an imperative of nature,” he said.
Ethiopia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Taye Atske Selassie, replied that the dispute over the Nile, which flows through at least six countries, was equally important to Ethiopia.
In reality, Egypt does not face an immediate threat to its water security.
Even if Ethiopia continues to fill as planned this month, less than a tenth of the reservoir will be filled. With vast reserves of water behind Egypt’s own Nile dam in Aswan, there is little risk that dry Egyptian fields or taps in Cairo will dry up.
But the two countries remain bitterly divided on key issues, rooted in history, pride, and money, which in essence amount to a dispute over control of the Nile.
“This is an important moment,” said William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It raises the possibility that the two downstream countries will withdraw from the talks, which may increase tensions.”
Egypt wants legally binding guarantees that, in the event of a prolonged drought, Ethiopia will reduce or stop filling the dam. Cairo also wants to comment on Ethiopia’s development of any other dams on the Nile in the future.
Ethiopia rejects those demands, which it considers a violation of sovereignty. Egypt must accept that its centennial rule of the Nile has come to an end, they say.
Trust is low on all sides. An Egyptian official, who requested anonymity to discuss delicate international talks, accused Ethiopia of seeking an agreement with such vague commitments and with so many gaps that he compared to a block of Swiss cheese.
Ethiopian officials respond with allegations that Egypt is behaving in a typically arrogant manner, and point to strong support from ordinary Ethiopians, many of whom have a financial stake in the project.
Like tens of thousands of Ethiopians, Yacob Arsano Atito, a professor of political science at Addis Ababa University in the Ethiopian capital, bought government bonds at the dam years ago. He expects his $ 225 investment to pay back soon.
“I am very pleased that the project is on track to be completed,” he said.
In an interview, Mr. Bekele, Ethiopia’s water minister, said the dam was not fully built. It currently rises to over 1,800 feet, about 260 feet below its final height. Not all of its 13 turbines have been installed.
Although the dam reservoir has a maximum capacity of 19.5 trillion gallons, much larger than the reservoir behind the Hoover Dam, its optimal operating size will be approximately 13 trillion gallons, the equivalent of a year’s flow from the Nile.
However, in many ways, the dispute is as much about politics as it is about hydrology.
Abiy, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, came to power in 2018 with a reputation as a reformer, and last year he won the Nobel Peace Prize for his success in forging peace with Eritrea. But recently, his country has again been plunged into violent turmoil by the state of Oromo, its largest ethnic group.
In the east of the country, the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army carries out attacks against the security forces, and at least 166 people were killed in late June during protests over the murder of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular Oromo musician and activist.
For Mr. Ahmed, who has repeatedly promised to fill the dam this month, the project offers “something Ethiopians can unite with,” said Mr. Atito, the political scientist.
There are also dangers for Egypt’s authoritarian leader, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Its security forces do not anticipate major protests if it fails to reach an agreement with Ethiopia, authorities said.
But after accumulating the dispute for so many years, Mr. el-Sisi’s legitimacy could be affected if he does not act, particularly at a time when he also faces threats from other regional rivals.
In a meeting with Libyan tribal leaders on Thursday, Mr. Sisi reiterated the threat to send Egyptian troops to Libya to defend himself from forces backed by his rival, Turkey.
Caught in the middle is Sudan, which lies between Ethiopia and Egypt. Sudan will benefit from the cheaper electricity produced by the dam, but is concerned that any sudden release of water could damage its own smaller Roseires dam.
Western diplomats watching the crisis say veiled Egyptian threats of military action against Ethiopia are unlikely to be carried out, though Egyptian officials refuse to rule it out. But for now, the focus is on a political agreement.
The African Union, led by South Africa, is expected to convene an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis next week. Mediators hope that, with one final push, they can bridge the gap between Ethiopia and Egypt, before seasonal rains fill the gap for them.
Simon Marks contributed reports from Palau, Sardinia; and Nada Rashwan from Cairo.
