As the Brexit deadlines loom, posturing and bickering flare up again


LONDON – Threats to walk off the table at the Belize bargain. Condemnations of British sovereignty and promises not to be Europe’s “consumer state”. The ominous talk of a tight border again in Ireland.

Seven months after Britain’s exit from the European Union, its negotiations with the bloc over a permanent trade agreement have fallen into a very familiar cycle of no-recovery, brinkmenship and “no-deal Brexit” warnings, the same grim scenario that dominates British politics. Time years ago.

On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to close the talks if no deal was reached before the official deadline of December 31 and 15 months earlier, by Oct. 15. And his government has drafted a law weakening the political parts. The agreement, concerning Northern Ireland, that he withdrew last October after 47 years.

Yet, for all the similarities, like Groundhog Day, Britain is in a completely different place than it was a year ago – cast from Europe, fighting the coronavirus and facing the economic crisis that has already cut Mr’s popularity. Johnson’s Conservative government.

According to experts, Mr Johnson will have little benefit from pressuring the European Union on state subsidies for British industry and controversial rights to fishing rights. Brussels has shown no signs of yielding, especially on subsidies, all but guaranteeing that the latest negotiations in London this week will end in a deadlock.

Mr Johnson appeared to be preparing the ground for some sort of breakdown, insisting that the not-deal Brexit would be a “good outcome” for Britain which would give it control over its laws and fishing waters, and set it free to trade. Deals with other countries, including the United States.

“We will prosper vigorously as a result,” he declared.

Analysts dismissed many of these positions as posthumous, intended to be hard line breakers in his own party and designed to send a message that Mr Johnson would be more difficult than his predecessor Theresa May.

But the laws affecting Northern Ireland, first reported by The Financial Times, were an unexpected development that could have consequences not only for the Irish, but also for the European Union and the United States.

Under the terms of its withdrawal agreement, Britain signed up to a complex series of customs that would maintain an open border on the island of Ireland. The proposed law would give Britain a free hand on how it decides to implement those arrangements if it does not enter into an agreement with the group – an aggressive move that has raised concerns among Irish and European Union leaders.

Democratic presidential candidate Joseph R. Other Irish defenders, including Biden Jr., are likely to consider the Good Friday Accord a threat, ending decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. That, in turn, could jeopardize trade talks with Washington and Washington – something President Trump, a staunch supporter of Brexit, has enthusiastically backed.

Anand Mann, a professor of European politics at King’s College Lodge London, said the UK government would like to see how the US election begins. “The outcome of the election has a huge impact on what this government will do.”

Renewing the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol will also make it harder for Britain to conclude a trade agreement with the European Union, with many experts saying negotiators in Brussels would view their British counterparts even more skeptically and demand more restricted language.

“They will say: ‘You are refusing to do what we have already done. How can we negotiate a new agreement with you? Said Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Center for European Reform, a London-based research group.

British officials implemented instructions that they plan to terminate the agreement. Mr Lowe said he saw it less as an attempt to renew rather than raise Britain’s leverage by claiming to be in the driver’s seat.

He said any changes could apply to bureaucratic processes, such as whether companies must file a declaration for goods transported to Britain from Northern Ireland.

As negotiations begin, both sides have opened their heels. The European Union is demanding that Britain agree to rules that would prevent it from pouring state subsidies into businesses that can export freely to the continental market. The British want the freedom to support companies in emerging high-tech sectors such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence.

So far, no replicas have been made in London. The main European negotiator, Michel Barnier, told an Irish research institute last week that Britain was “not engaged constructively” and accused it of “lack of engagement” on key issues.

Mr Johnson’s chief negotiator, David Frost, said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday that Britain would never become a “client state” of the European Union.

More than four years after the debate over Brexit matured in Britain, some analysts said, the country showed such words after the country voted to leave the bloc. But they have also eroded Mr Johnson’s feelings about the need for a tight-knit Brexit in some government officials, in which Britain would distance itself from the European Union as far as possible.

The question is whether Mr. Johnson’s risk of failed negotiations can be borne. His popularity has already hit him during the epidemic, with the idea that his Conservative government responded to it. In the Career Starr, he faced more competent leadership than the previous leader in the opposition Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn.

The no-deal Brexit will spur calls for independence in Scotland, where polls have already seen a surge in support for leaving the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland nationalists will probably seize any indications that Britain is not living up to its border promises to call for Ireland’s reunification.

Despite all the theatrics, analysts said they believe Mr Johnson will eventually make a deal with Brussels, as he did after a similar round of brinkmanship last year. With only a few months left before the deadline, he fears he may miscalculate or lose time, especially if his government is busy dealing with another wave of coronaviruses.

Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk adviser, said Boris Johnson still wanted a deal, he still needed a deal. “Rising temperatures were inevitable, and the belief is that this is an important window to make this deal. But given all this, it’s very hard to believe there will be a deal.”