Even before the global coronavirus pandemic forced people to stay indoors and shut down businesses in a largely unprecedented way, the summer months strained power grids. The oppressive heat forces residential and commercial units to turn on the air conditioner, causing a significant increase in energy use and an increased likelihood of a blackout.
But now, with record numbers of people working from home, combined with high unemployment amid the summer heat here in the United States, there could be an increased risk of power outages, experts say, despite the decline. general in energy consumption throughout the country.
At issue are residential networks that are not designed for the sustained increase in energy demand. The subject was examined in a report from the Columbia University Earth Institute, which focused on the use of electricity in hundreds of Manhattan apartments in April.
Overall, weektime use of electricity in those apartments increased by 7% after an order to stay at New York City from March 30 to April 5. However, when the study looked at “work” hours, the output was more pronounced. From 9 am to 5 pm, Monday through Friday, the report said there was a 23% increase in “average apartment-level electricity consumption.”
And these data were released in late April, before temperatures started to rise, which is a key factor contributing to power outages, study author Vijay Modi, a professor of mechanical engineering and member of the faculty of the Earth Institute of Columbia University.
New York as a case study
While an increase in residential energy use is expected, the New York Independent System Operator, a nonprofit corporation responsible for operating the state’s bulk electricity grid, said “state electricity supplies of New York will be adequate to meet the forecast maximum demand. ” terms “.
In its initial summer report, New York’s ISO said the state’s maximum load this summer is projected to reach 32,296 megawatts (MW), which is well below 41,319 MW of available energy resources across the Empire. State. New York’s record high demand of 33,956 MW was established in July 2013.
New York City’s response to the coronavirus has led to an 8-10% decrease in overall electricity use in the state from July 5 to July, according to the New York ISO report, which includes systems that serve both to commercial and residential areas.
The report indicates an increase in residential energy use, “especially during midday,” but did not share specific numbers. He said he prepared to meet consumers’ energy demands this summer.
“The network is well equipped to handle anticipated summer demand,” Wes Yeomans, vice president of ISO operations in New York, said in a statement. “We operate the network to comply with the reliability rules that are among the strictest in the country and are designed to guarantee an adequate supply.”
With Edison, New York City’s main energy provider, he said he is also prepared to handle the increased loads.
“No utility company would guarantee that there will be no outages for a full summer. Heat, humidity, and increased energy demand cause stress on equipment. But if outages occur, our teams will respond,” a Con spokesperson said. Ed to ABC News.
The company told ABC News that it spent $ 1.3 billion to prepare its system for the summer of 2020 and is “confident that we have done everything possible to maintain reliable service.”
Similar to the Columbia University study, Con Edison said he predicts overall New York City use will decrease due to a decrease in office use but with an increase in residential areas. If a power outage occurs, the utility company said it would send generators to those affected.
The key area of concern is residential networks, Yury Dvorkin, an assistant professor at New York University’s Tandon School of Engineering, told ABC News.
“Due to orders to stay home, residential demand has changed its typical cyclical daily profile and, in many cases, has increased,” Dvorkin said during a meeting of the New York City Council in late May about needs city cooling.
He said that even if large parts of Manhattan are using less energy, that does not mean it will help grids supply power to residents of Queens or Brooklyn, areas he said have seen a huge increase in new residential units in recent years. . .
Not all grids, even in the same city, are created equally. Systems that primarily serve residential areas in the US are likely to see an increased risk of power outages because those networks were not designed to keep people in their homes.
Modi said that not only heat and use cause blackouts, but also a combination of time and days during increased usage. Residential networks, he said, are generally not set up for people to work from home on weekdays, and this unusual usage pattern increases the likelihood of a blackout on a hot day.
“I think it will be a combination of all those [things] And now she also adds, if we don’t all go to the beach or the park, everyone at home on that hot day, the children are not at camp, using A / C in the buildings … that is starting to increase the risk ” Modi said.
Vulnerable populations
An additional risk to residents this summer if there is a prolonged power outage is that many places where people could go to cool down, libraries, shopping malls, gyms etc. are closing or operating at limited capacity due to demands from social distancing.
Dvorkin said many residents are vulnerable to electricity and cannot endure a prolonged blackout. It could only be three to four hours before health problems arise after a blackout for the highest-risk population.
For some, “if you can’t restore [power] Within that time period, people will incur some long-term health implications, “he told ABC News. Electricity is a” critical dependency because some have home life support equipment that needs to be recharged, “he said.
Potential difficulties for power grids this summer will not be limited to New York City: areas across the country where temperatures are high and usage is most at risk, according to the Earth Institute study.
“There is no reason to expect that the changes we are seeing in New York City will not occur in other regions of the United States or in other parts of the world,” wrote the authors of the Earth Institute. “Also, in places where the energy loads are primarily residential, and there is no proportional reduction in non-residential load, we would expect to see an increase in total energy demand, along with an increased risk of interruptions in supply systems and existing power distribution. “
The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that energy consumption in the country will actually decrease by 4% in 2020 and then grow by 1% in 2021.
“This decrease in expected consumption reflects significant changes in electricity consumption patterns as a result of efforts to mitigate COVID-19,” EIA said in a statement Tuesday. “These mitigation and reopening efforts are currently evolving, introducing further uncertainty into STEO’s electricity forecasts.”
However, like other energy forecasts, the EIA report includes both commercial and residential use. He says the decline is almost exclusively due to the drop in commercial and industrial use.
National electricity sales to residential areas were 8% higher in April this year compared to April 2019. Despite the increase in a month before temperatures rose, EIA said it predicts “mitigation efforts COVID-19 will gradually decrease during the third quarter of 2020. ” and that 2020 energy usage numbers will be stable compared to 2019.
High temperatures tax the system
Modi said the issue of rising temperatures this year would be particularly troubling for the warmer regions of the U.S.
“If I’m in a warm climate and I see COVID numbers grow, [like] in Phoenix and everyone is home and it’s hot and everyone has started their air conditioning, I think they will see impacts, “said Modi.
And the weather is not expected to cooperate. In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts warmer summer temperatures across the United States, especially along the coasts.
In NOAA’s latest climate report, much of the US has a 50% or more chance of exceeding normal temperatures from July to September. Places that are even more likely to have warmer temperatures include the Northeast, West Coast, Southwest, Florida, and Alaska.
Those temperatures are likely to test the nets throughout the summer, as states like Arizona, Texas, Florida reestablish some closure policies due to recent spikes in COVID-19 hospitalizations, forcing more people to stay. at home.
However, the Arizona Public Service, which provides electricity to more than 2.7 million people in Arizona, said that even with a forecast of temperatures of over 110 degrees in the state this weekend, the organization does affect power. of residents.
“We do not anticipate any issues with meeting or demand planning and we are not concerned to continue to do so if the home stay conditions continue,” said Jacob Tetlow, senior vice president of operations for APS, in a statement to ABC News. . “We like to say ‘summer is our season.’ Warm temperatures are normal, and we work year-round to prepare for summer. We have the resources and supplies to reliably meet customer demand.”
APS said it does not anticipate any service disruption this summer despite its 2020 maximum demand forecast of 7,470 MW expected to exceed its maximum demand of 7,367 MW, which was established in 2017. The company said it has 15% reserve margin to combat these types of peaks, even in residential areas.
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