WASHINGTON / LONDON (Reuters) – When Donald Trump was elected President of the United States in 2016, almost immediately, and with apparent pleasure, he set out to try to demolish Barack Obama’s carefully inherited foreign policy legacy.
FILE PHOTO: Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden accepts the nomination of the Democratic president in 2020 during a speech delivered for the largely virtual Democratic National Convention of 2020 from the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware, USA, August 20, 2020. REUTERS / Kevin Lamarque
In the coming days, months and years, Trump will conclude a trade agreement with the Asia-Pacific, a global climate agreement, a nuclear agreement with Iran and a process to end decades of hostility with Cuba.
The Republican leader also publicly attacked long-time US allies from Berlin to Tokyo, while praising authoritarian rulers from Russia’s Vladimir Putin to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
And after praising China’s Xi Jinping, he launched trade and rhetorical battles with Beijing that created fears of a new Cold War – or even military conflict.
Top former diplomats from around the world say Trump has severely damaged faith in American leadership and a victory for Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election. Would bring even greater sighs of relief to many capitals than those when the George W. Bush presidency ended more than a decade ago.
They expect swift action by a Democratic administration to restore signature on Obama-era policies, starting with the climate agreement.
But despite the widespread anger that Trump has provoked, not all of his policy legacy will be taken out of the window, and neither longtime allies nor strategic rivals expect a soft touch from Biden, vice president under Obama and a former senator with decades of experience. foreign policy.
They also do not expect much change from the internally-charged tendency manifested in Trump’s “America first” approach.
“We are really in a period of transition from defining a new American policy to power politics, with China, with Russia … so it’s a new world,” said Gerard Araud, France’s former ambassador to Washington.
“US presidents will be more committed to the national interest of the US The US no longer wants to be the policeman of the world; I think Obama and Trump understood that. ‘
The challenge of TRUMP TO CHINA
While the Trump administration has provoked some alarm with the tone of its recent attacks on China on issues ranging from the coronavirus to espionage, there is a broad agreement that will change little in substance under a Biden government when it comes to policy. regarding Beijing.
Indeed, although Trump has tried to portray both Obama and Biden as “soft” on China, the previous administration followed a tougher line against Beijing than Trump initially did.
“In Obama’s last two years, they had a new China strategy,” said Michael Pillsbury, a former U.S. defense official and China analyst who has worked as an outside adviser to Trump. “A lot of people think this was a Trump invention; it is not. ”
He noted that Biden advisers Ely Ratner, Kurt Campbell, Brian McKeon, Tony Blinken, Bob Work and Ash Carter had produced difficult analyzes of China and shared deep concerns about their military build-up, espionage activities and trade practices.
Peter Ricketts, a national security adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, had some praise for Trump’s China approach, but also a warning.
“The Trump administration has crystallized a growing concern about China’s activities, including its much more assertive foreign policy and its collapse at home.
“Trump’s willingness to come forward and challenge that, to call on China, has been positive. The risk is that it could go too far now and in a very Cold War with China. ”
Tom Fletcher, a foreign policy adviser to three former British prime ministers, said he did not expect major changes across China under a Biden administration, but a less abrasive style.
“I do not think the Biden policy will be a million miles away from Trump’s China policy. But the language will be different, and there will be more wisdom and strategy behind it, ”he said.
Some analysts say Trump could offer a future building block to his unusual but not yet successful engagement with North Korea. Biden called Trump’s personal diplomacy a ‘vanity project’ that should only happen with a strategy to advance North Korean denuclearization.
HIT TO AMERICAN CREDIBILITY
David O’Sullivan, the former EU ambassador to Washington, said Trump had a “very damaging effect” and that it would take time to rebuild America’s image and leadership role.
But he had articulated some deep feelings among Americans about the extent of U.S. overseas involvement and a feeling that some allies were not losing their weight.
“There will be no tears in Europe if Trump loses the election,” O’Sullivan said. “This administration has been particularly unsatisfactory, and especially abusive, and has honestly alienated the allies and given comfort to people who were previously considered opponents.
“Nor do I think anyone is under the illusion that a Biden administration will usher in a kind of golden age of European-American cooperation … the differences will remain, but we will start from a point of mutual respect.”
O’Sullivan and others said Biden would likely try to resist the Iran deal and the trade deal with Asia, but not without versions to secure the kind of “better deal,” Trump often says of getting it.
While relationships can be charged, experts said scars will remain from Trump’s abrasive approach that could influence countries’ willingness to stick their necks out to follow American leads.
“The fundamental belief in the American stock is shaken,” said Adam Ereli, a spokesman for the State Department under George W. Bush and an ambassador to Bahrain under Obama.
“In the back they will be, ‘Could Trump happen again?'”
Report by David Brunnstrom, Humeyra Pamuk and Luke Baker; Written by David Brunnstrom; Edited by Mary Milliken and Daniel Wallis
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