It seems like years ago, but it’s only been five months since Orange County and the country entered COVID-19 acute crisis mode.
Collectively, we were able to avoid a “spike and surge” when we closed the doors of nonessential businesses, switched to remote education, put on masks, and ducked: For nearly two months, COVID-19 cases grew slowly in OC.
Those months at home also gave us the time to better understand the virus. We learned that symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers can silently transmit the virus, and that our individual efforts can influence the trajectory of this epidemic.
While we don’t know how long this pandemic will continue until an effective COVID-19 vaccine is developed, manufactured, and distributed to the public, we can expect this pandemic to be our new normal in the near future. And we know that each of us has options that will determine our collective experience.
We are currently seeing an alarming reversal, of course, from the early stages of the pandemic with new daily infections in the county, marked by a dangerous upward trend that has so far been unrelenting. Data from the Orange County Public Health Care Agency reveals that the cases are spread throughout the county and there is no “safe place” free of risk of exposure.
The increase in cases is also troubling as coronavirus-related hospitalizations are increasing as hospitals have begun to resume elective surgeries, which can overwhelm health systems and deplete necessary resources.
We can help stop the increase in cases, now. It is possible to flatten the curve and reduce the number of new coronavirus cases in Orange County. If the community continues to take simple steps to stop the spread of the virus, such as wearing face covers, maintaining adequate physical distance, and hand washing, we can help directly and effectively control the infection rate.
Conscious efforts around harm reduction are also encouraged, such as choosing to run errands for stores during off-peak hours and keep small, short, and outdoor social gatherings. The retail experience and our social lives still can’t go back to the way they were before the pandemic.
Coronavirus is an intertwined economic and public health problem. Containment of the virus is critical to our economic health, as well as to public health. Additional restrictions to reopen businesses will prolong the coronavirus-induced recession. Even recovering from the impact of our initial blockades, many American companies and employers cannot afford the reintroduction of closings.
The impact on companies is inevitable, but it can be minimized. According to a recent study by Goldman Sachs, the widespread use of masks could prevent a loss of 5 percent of GDP in the United States economy. Orange County’s annual GDP is around $ 300 billion, which means that the widespread use of face masks could save the local economy up to $ 150 million.
Additionally, companies will be forced to close if there aren’t enough healthy customers to sponsor them, or if consumers fear the consequences of buying. Companies that make efforts to ensure consumer safety will also build loyalty, influencing consumer behavior after the pandemic.
The impact of the pandemic on our local economy is particularly worrying as we see coronavirus becoming a disparity disease. Social determinants of health have a considerable influence on the risk of exposure to the virus, as well as on the result of infection.
According to the CDC, blacks, Hispanics and Latinos, and American Indians / Alaska Natives have higher rates of hospitalization or death from coronavirus than white Americans. In Orange County alone, we see that Latino communities are the most affected. Low-income communities across the country are also most affected by coronavirus, with less access to evidence and available resources for people to protect themselves against infection.
Collective action, taken by every individual in our community, can immediately reduce the rate of coronavirus transmission and flatten the curve in Orange County and California. It will truly serve everyone’s self-interest to choose compassion for our neighbors rather than the convenience of following a pre-pandemic routine during a health pandemic.
Bernadette Boden-Albala is director and founding dean of the University of California, Irvine public health program. Eric Spangenberg is the dean of the UCI Paul Merage School of Business.
