It has been difficult to categorize the earth-changing events of the last five months. We’re not going to consider an NCAA tournament … not an NCAA. Players become a third track in the structure of the college, and seek a seat, along with coaches and television.
The earth was shaken by a combination of two battles – COVID-19 and social justice. The pandemic not only caused a budget crisis, it exposed a leadership vacuum.
In that vacuum the players themselves may have stepped in, the workforce at this enterprise is fully built.
Whatever you think of the college athletics model, it has been officially and permanently changed. The rules are rewritten in real time. This week ends with the largest schools in the nation’s most popular sport of the nation literally divided. Whether to start in the fall or spring.
The situation has become philosophical, medical, financial. Again is leading? Forget about ripening the NCAA for a moment. When will we feel safe sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with our neighbor in a 100,000-seat stadium?
Some of you will be signing up right now. But the pandemic dictates that you can not. The pandemic controls everything.
As of now, football will be played at majority universities in two semesters. That striving itself can further the power makers of the sport struggling.
Keep in mind that if the Big Ten and Pac-12 can’t pull off a spring season in 2021, they’ve gone 21 months without snapping a ball. It is assumed that an autumn 2021 season will begin on time.
Meanwhile, the SEC, ACC and Big 12 are trying to play on time in the fall (though starting a little late). You can see how this setup is – yet another “right” vs. “wrong” discussion about coronavirus.
Depending on which way the wind blows, a “told you so” of monumental proportions from one arrogant fan base awaits.
For now, the competing implications are only disaster.
There is already a danger for the Big Ten and for losing players via transfer to schools that play in the fall – if space is available. Imagine you have to recruit when you look at rival games and win championships.
Two-semester football is perhaps a model for the future. In 2017, CBS Sports detailed what that looks like.
“It’s never been done before, but there’s a lot of talk about having split seasons at least for the Group of Five,” said Northern Illinois athletic director Sean Frazier. “If there is any way to mark what we are doing, this would be a great beta test. A forced beta test because of COVID-19.”
The future will include many beta tests.
Will an attendance crisis lead to the construction of smaller boutique stadiums?
Will the budget deficit affect the increasing salaries of coaches? Would it? Those well-paid coaches oversee programs that generate 80% of an average FBS athletics budget.
Will athletic life go on as usual when we emerge from this nasty pandemic?
Long-term athletic budgets a major concern
Responsibility leads all decisions these days. At the highest levels, a lost football season will cost upwards of $ 100 million. Believe it or not, schools are already financing those losses along the way.
“I contacted some bankers to see if they could lend us some money,” one FBS AD told CBS Sports.
Those losses will be fully funded as you take out a 15 year mortgage on a home. Except that most Power Five schools have debts over existing facilities to cover. A bank will still lend that money because the university will eventually secure the loan.
For some, chasing football revenue through the pandemic is cheaper than shutting down a campus.
“We try to get as much of the $ 50 million in TV money as we can,” said a source within the Big Ten, “but we risk hundreds of millions of dollars on the other side.”
There is further liability. It is doubtful whether returning football from colleges can survive a light hospital stay. The optics are different in college, where players do not have much to say in the COVID-19 treatment that did not exist six months ago.
There are long-term effects to consider on two levels. The decision to play (if not) focused largely on the long-term effects of COVID-19.
“Why do we think we can protect all these fans and players a little better than one of the biggest monopolies in the world? [the NFL]? a Power Five AD told CBS Sports.
Although, how many of the 130 FBS teams will even be round if we get out of here? That is the ugly truth of bearing so much guilt. During the pandemic, Georgia bragged about having $ 100 million in reserves. It’s an outlier.
At the lower end of the sport, some programs essentially play football so they can continue playing football. That’s one way to describe athletic budgets built on guarantee games, student expenses and government subsidies.
“We will lose institutions,” continued Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick. “We will have a number of member institutions that will not be involved in college education in 3-4 years.”
The crisis has further revealed how athletic departments pay salaries to salaries. Because they are mostly nonprofits, in theory, they have to spend every penny they deposit.
In a July letter to fans, Iowa State AD put Jamie Pollard in sharp perspective what a fall without football would mean. His athletic department would have $ 41 million in “unfunded expenses.” Since the pandemic began, the university itself is in the process of losing $ 73 million by August 23.
Multiply that now by some form by 130.
Football will survive and flourish in any changed form. Sooner or later, ADs will be woken up by the stupid contracts they continue to give.
James Franklin’s $ 7 million salary at Penn State represents about 7% of the university’s annual athletic budget. If the school president received 7% of Penn State’s tuition, he would make $ 119 million. In fact, Eric Barron makes about $ 1 million a year.
Hey, they say you’re worth what someone will pay you.
Professionalization of university athletes along the way
College football and basketball will almost certainly be professionalized in the future. That does not mean that the game will necessarily be harmless. Fans will still grab stadiums, even if the next Trevor Lawrence makes $ 1 million from his name, image and image – from his social media accounts alone.
Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray won a Heisman Trophy in 2018 while enjoying a $ 5 million MLB signing bonus. (He eventually repaid it when he chose the NFL.)
It is clear that players will have a seat at the table that makes important decisions about their education, well-being and compensation. But coaches and managers will have to adapt, living at the table of marketing agents.
The #WeAreUnited movement had a direct impact with a threatened boycott. The NCAA has already adopted two of its requirements, although it seems to be leading the way this way.
A ‘bill of rights’ from a player being developed in Washington, DC would expand dramatic opportunities for name, image and imagery. Such a bill would essentially remove all restrictions, allowing athletes to become just like their peers on campus – capable of earning unlimited compensation for their fame and intelligence. Those federal legislators do not focus so quietly on the NCAA.
NCAA President Mark Emmert and his organization have asked Congress to implement anti-trust protection to NIL. Some of those legislators have blown that concept past. They are doubtful about the NCAA’s ability to place restrictions on athletes who earn power.
“It’s a long time ago that the NCAA would have to act on these issues,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) told ESPN. “I am looking for legislation to oblige universities to have rules that protect athletes.”
The dubious power of the NCAA was weakened
These past five months have had the cumulative effect of turning the NCAA from its once unimpeachable power. The association has for the most part been on the sidelines at key times, while conferences ran their way across the pandemic in a comeback to play.
“All those things snowball,” said player activist Ramogi Huma.
We are now seven months away from the NCAA Tournament. A second straight March Madness affected by the pandemic could be a stake through the heart of the NCAA. Tournament revenue accounts for more than 80% of the NCAA’s annual budget.
“It’s their nut, but it leaves peanuts for the rest of us [if the tournament is canceled], “a Power Five manager told CBS Sports.
Stakeholders come closer to negotiating directly with athletes about certain aspects of their experience. That does not necessarily mean a union. It means more involvement, more of a partnership. Is that wrong?
“The story has been in the past, we are bred to believe we have no rights,” said defense attorney Odon State Jaydon Grant, part of the #WeAreUnited movement. “The unwritten rules of university athletics where your higher ups can’t really be questioned.”
Think of Justin Fields’ situation. A year after arriving on campus as a Georgia full-back quarterback, the Ohio State Heisman finalist (and one of the top players entering 2020) may have played his final snap. The conference of his school has decided to try to play in the spring amid the pandemic. Whether Fields risks his body and future will play a short schedule right before the NFL Draft continues to show.
This has marked the eternal battle between the for-profit business model and the academic mission of the school. Stanford cut 11 sports. Akron reduced its athletic budget by 20%.
As of late June, more than 130 Olympic sports were cut in all NCAA divisions during the pandemic. Only 57 have been combined in the last three years.
The Mountain West tried unsuccessfully to sue the NCAA for a moratorium on minimum sponsorship for sports (16). The endgame may be schools that sponsor enough sports to satisfy Title IX concerns, as long as football and basketball remain healthy.
When the Big Ten and Pac-12 play in the spring, they will get a glimpse of their reset value in this new normal. They will have to figure out how to play two seasons in one calendar year. By then, they may negotiate with the players’ organization over the final decision.
Those two leagues are academically, philosophically and athletically linked (in the Rose Bowl). But they are lagged in the CFP era.
The Big Ten has had one national championship since 2002. The Pac-12 has not won since 2004. Both plan to play in the spring, but it’s a gamble, just like everything these days.
It keeps repeating: If two of the richest, most prestigious conferences are unable to play amidst the coronavirus, they risk going almost two years without competition.
What will university athletics look like then?
