After weeks of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the fighting mountainous region of Moscow Nag Nargono-Karabakh, the people of Armen have given up hope of any help from their ally Russia.
Under a mutual defense agreement known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – the Russian equivalent of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – Moscow has promised to send troops to defend member states such as Armenia if attacked. But the Armenians are not holding their breath, as well as the death toll is mounted and Azerbaijan has entered the battlefield due to their fighting drone power.
“Every Armenian in the world feels a threat to our nation,” Arthur Paronian, an Armenian politician, told the Daily Beast. “But no one expects help from the CSTO. It is a dead body. “
Instead of sending troops, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to broker a ceasefire in Moscow in early October. But the peace deal quickly fell apart, and Putin acknowledged in a recent speech that the war in Nagorno-Karabakh had become more deadly than both sides admitted. Putin said 5,000 people had been killed on both sides in the fighting. “We have conflict in its worst form,” he said.
Putin has not accepted Russia’s responsibility to intervene despite a mutual defense agreement with Armenia. The agreement covers threats to the territory of the Russian ally, and most of the fighting is in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally believed to belong to Azerbaijan, while some artillery strikes actually hit mainland Armenia. Russia’s cautious stance indicates that the credibility of the Russian defense treaty is becoming the second accident of the war.
Paronia said Russia could still secretly intervene, as with troops in uniform in Ukraine, known as “green men”, it would not formally fulfill its obligations under the treaty. “There are hopes that Russia has other ways to help, such as sending green men.” “We don’t like it.” So far, Russia has not deployed troops to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh but Armenia has Russian boots. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said earlier this week that there are Russian border guards on the Armenian border with Nagorno-Karabakh.
If indeed 5,000,000 people had been killed in a single month of fighting, the war would now be clearly the deadliest in the former Soviet Union, in the region that Russia has presented itself as a guardian of stability. The crash is the third highest number of deaths reported by the United Nations in six years of fighting in eastern Ukraine. This week, the countries continued to fight through another armistice, this one negotiated and announced by the Trump administration. Azerbaijan said Armenia fired rockets at civilian targets, while Armenia’s Defense Ministry said rockets landed on a town in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I don’t think Russia wants to intervene and go to war with Azerbaijan. Inactivity is less than two evils for them.”
The Republic of Mountains, which has been home to three decades of brutal warfare in the 1990s, displacing one million and displacing one million in the 1990s, has been struggling on the mountainous countries, but the growth that began in September is the worst. The previous ceasefire was in 1994. Armenia is a member of the CSTO, a military alliance of seven of the 15 former Soviet republics, where Russia has a major role. He left the membership of Azerbaijan in 1999.
Fouad Akhandov, head of the public and political affairs department of Azerbaijan’s presidential administration, told the Daily Beast that the CSTO treaty should not apply to the current conflict. “This is a war on the territory of Azerbaijan – we are moving the Armenian military away from the territory of Azerbaijan.” “No one attacked CSTO; Therefore, as a member of this organization, Armenia is violating the UN resolution, which is recognized by the CSTO, “Akhundov said, referring to the 2008 UN resolution declaring Nagarno-Karabakh a territory of Azerbaijan. Armenian forces from all occupied territories. ”
Russia’s position – it has sold arms to both sides as it tries to mediate the conflict – is not only closer to the Armenians’ home, but also to members of the larger Armenian diaspora, who are watching the conflict closely. “Together, we continue to pray for many war-affected men, women and children in these difficult times. We are a global Armenian nation, “Kirm Kardashian, an Armenian-American, wrote in a recent social media post.
“There are hopes that Russia has other ways to help, such as sending green men. We do not like.”
The war in the South Caucasus is not the only hotspot for the Kremlin among CSTO member countries. One political and security crisis after another has erupted this year. Belarus, Russia’s key ally, has seen widespread unrest over the election. Its capital Minsk on Sunday were performing police rubber bullets at the protesters and spectacular throws grenades. “We are unarmed! We are unarmed! “Chance of being police privation during the march was peaceful opposition” People’s ultimatums “, who had demanded the resignation of the country’s tanavadi leader, Alexander Lukashenko lekjha ndara. Hundreds of thousands of people have been joining rallies in Belarus since the beginning of August. Human rights groups have reported that police have beaten and tortured hundreds of Belarusian anti-government activists.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also explicitly noted in Kyrgyzstan, a post-Soviet country in Central Asia, known as “chaos and chaos” and as a member of the CSTO, which was undergoing its third revolution since the fall of the USSR.
“The whole system that Putin has been trying to build for the last two decades is crumbling, crumbling and failing,” said Vladimir Rzkov, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and Economics. “Putin’s dream of rebuilding post-Soviet power and loyalty will only work if Russia can continue to pay aid to its partners. But clearly, even money cannot buy back Russia’s rights.”
Earlier this year, residents of Russia’s neighboring countries criticized the Russian president for his rude call to reorganize the Soviet states for their own benefit. The Kremlin on a show called “Moscow”. Putin, who was broadcast on Russia’s Channel One, called on post-Soviet countries to “dispel some of the phobias of the past, allay fears about the Soviet Union and the resurgence of the Soviet Union.” Empire. He added: “Joining the effort is in everyone’s interest, [and] Thus making it inevitable. “
But not everyone welcomed Putin’s comments about the “benefits” of reuniting former Soviet states. After the broadcast, the Baku-based analytical center, the Institute for Strategic Analysis, is headed by the Russian president to “redefine the borders of decades of shameless colonial plunder, repression, against national intelligence, mass exodus,” hunger genocide. “
Moscow’s newest option to unite the former Soviet Union, the Eurasian Economic Union, emerged a few years ago. Russia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed treaties with Russia in 2014-15, annexing Crimea by the Kremlin and facing economic sanctions from both the European Union and the United States. But Russian opinion about the new alliance also seems confusing: 28 percent of Russians believe this is a new version of the USSR, while 39 percent prefer to see a completely new union, different from the full Soviet model.
Kyrgyzstan is in “chaos”, Belarus is in constant political turmoil and Armenia is at war. The Eurasian Economic Union represents an unstable existence. According to Yuri Kripnov, a Moscow-based analyst, Russia’s readiness to send real economic resources for the project is entirely to blame. “There is only one way to resolve crucial issues in our allied states: to build a strong union state, not a form of civilized divorce, otherwise the cost of the results will be more dramatic than many people imagine today,” Krupnov said.
For now, the former Soviet states may be on their own when it comes to war and peace. Tom Wall, author Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War, Says it is up to Baku and Yerevan to prevent any major and bloody war without an end. “I do not think Russia wants to intervene and go to war with Azerbaijan. Inactivity is less than two evils for them, ”Dewal told the Daily Beast on Tuesday. “They help sensibly.” Carnegie, a senior ally in Europe, believes that if Russia ends the war with Azerbaijan, it could worsen on many levels, including Russia’s troubled region of Dagestan on the border with Azerbaijan.