On the call of the CCAF (Coordinating Council of Armenian Organizations of France), several hundred people from the Armenian community of France gathered near the Azerbaijani Embassy in Paris, France on September 29, 2020 to protest the war. Recent days in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the support of Turkey.
Samuel Bowin | LightPhoto by Getty Images
LONDON – The resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has raised fears of widespread regional conflict at the crossroads of Asia and Europe.
Dozens of people have been reported killed and hundreds injured since fighting broke out between the two former Soviet republics on Sunday.
The Nagorno-Karabakh fighting mountain imprint is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but has been under Armenian control since the early 1990s. The region declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991.
Armenia supports the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh region, but the country of about 3 million people has not officially recognized it.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the fight by telephone on Wednesday, calling for an immediate end to tensions between the warring parties.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also expressed his “extreme concern” over the latest clash and called for a “return to meaningful talks without delay.”
The Nagorno-Karabakh fighting mountain imprint is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but has been under Armenian control since the early 1990s.
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The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have rejected the suggestion of holding peace talks, accusing each other of obstructing the talks.
It is not clear what sparked the so-called “stable conflict” but the fighting has already been the worst in decades.
Regional security effects
Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a six-year war over Nagorno-Karabakh before the conflict ended in 1994, but in July, more recently, the enclave and the border have blamed each other for violating the ceasefire.
Located in the South Caucasus between Europe and Asia, the majority-Christian Armenia borders Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Turkey.
Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country of about 100 million people, is bordered by neighboring Armenia to the east and Iran, Turkey, Georgia, Russia and the Caspian Sea.
Russia, a close ally of Azerbaijan, is part of a military alliance with Armenia. The Kremlin has offered to hold talks between the two sides, claiming it had contacted the foreign ministers of both Armenia and Azerbaijan on Wednesday.
The fighting has raised tensions between NATO allies France and Turkey. France is home to many people of Armenian descent, while Turkey has called on the “whole world” to live with Azerbaijan.
In 1915, 15 million Armenians were massacred by the Ottoman Turks in support of Azerbaijan, which Armenia says was genocide. Turkey has resisted calls to call the killings genocide, saying the death toll has risen and those killed have fallen victim to the civil war.
In an interview with the state-run news agency Anadolu, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlૂટt Cavusoglu said on Wednesday that France’s support for Armenia was akin to Paris supporting the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan.
In response, France’s Maron Cron said he had taken note of Turkey’s political statements, calling Ankara’s comments “reckless and dangerous.”
French President Emmanuel Macron holds a press conference with the Prime Minister of Latvia (invisible) after his meeting on September 30, 2020 in Riga, Latvia, during Macron’s official visit to Latvia and the Baltic region.
Gents Ivascans | AFP by Getty Images
Speaking at a news conference in Riga, Latvia on Wednesday, Macron said “they have been very busy in the last hours with fighting messages from Turkey, overcoming Azerbaijan’s obstacles to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh. Don’t accept that.”
Macron said he would talk to the European Council and President Donald Trump about the fight on Thursday.
Analysts at the Political Risk Advisory Eurasia Group said their baseline scenario is for an extended confrontation near the line of conflict, but not a full-scale conflict that would lead Russia to war.
“Since the scope of stand-off fun is particularly great, this scenario is still dangerous and presents daily opportunities for blind growth,” he said. “It will include a limited amount of financial strain on Azerbaijan, which is ready to finance short-term operations, and perhaps even more strain in light of Armenia’s low financial resources and its general mobility.”
Analysts at the Eurasia Group predicted that the situation could “continue for days or even weeks”, suggesting Putin’s personal involvement at the front, and could be considered a “signpost” for further development on the scale of Turkish involvement.
Energy vacation anxiety
The Nagorno-Karabakh clashes also threaten to flood and affect regional oil and gas structures.
The S&P Global Plato said in a research note that the conflict zone is about 30 to 40 kilometers from the Baku-Tbilisi-Sihan crude pipeline, Azerbaijan’s main oil artery in world markets, and the South Caucasus gas pipeline connecting Turkey and wider Europe. .
“While our base case is pending for normal flow, the risk of damage or closure of the pipeline due to continued conflict will increase,” S&P Global Plates said.
I.E.A. It is estimated that crude oil and natural gas producer Azerbaijan supplies about 5% of Europe’s oil and gas needs.
Mountain landscape of Nagorno Karabach (Self-proclaimed Republic) f) on October 10, 2019. The republic is the subject of a dispute between Azerbaijan and the Armenians, historically occupied by the Armenians but annexed to Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Artsakh today is an independent independent state but is not recognized by any other party. It is only through Armenia that it is possible to enter the arts.
Dominika Zarzikka | LightPhoto by Getty Images
Speaking to CNBC’s Headley Gamble on Wednesday, Armenian President Armen Sarkisian said the fighting has led to growing fears of a breakdown in oil and gas.
Sarkisian described the notion that “there is absolutely no threat to the energy sector” and said the collisions presented a threat to international oil and gas pipelines “absolutely absurd.”
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $ 39.85 on Friday morning, down 2.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures Barrel. 37.75, which was a low of 2.5% for the session.
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