Alaska is more competitive, but Republicans are still ahead

The Republican state of Alaska has pushed President Trump’s work forward, but the Republicans are ahead of the state in the race for president, Senate and U.S. House, according to a poll released Friday by the New York Times / Sienna College Ledge.

Mr. Trump has led B Biden from 45 percent to 39 percent, backing the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen. Similarly, Republican House Speaker, Dan Sullivan, leads the nominee from 37 to the Democratic candidate, Al Gross, with Alaska’s independence candidate, John Ho, receiving 10 percent support.

In the 2018 House of Representatives rematch, longtime serving Republican Congressman Don Young Democratic nominee Alice Galvin, 49 percent to 41 percent, led her seven-point victory two years ago to the same margin.

Alaska has emerged as a potential battleground in the final stages of the campaign, as both Democrats and Republicans have rushed to run the ad in the House and Senate. The state has voted Republicans in every presidential election since 1964, and according to the survey, Republicans gain significant advantage in party registration and party identity. But many in Alaska have opposed Mr. Trump after he backed Hillary Clinton by 15 points four years ago, after a possible opening for Democrats in an independent state.

Today, 47 percent of Alaskans say they allow Mr. Trump to handle his responsibilities as president, while rejecting the same number.

Although Alaska is a long shot for Democrats, many voters support a secondary-party candidate, so there is an unusual amount of uncertainty. Democrats can also hope that their candidates will strengthen their position in the final three weeks; They are less well known than Republican officials and enter the final belt with significant financial gain.

G.O.P. The challenge is centered in Anchorage, a once reliably Republican city where all three Republican candidates are now on trial. The president beat Anchorage by five points four years ago, but Mr. Biden is nine ahead in the survey by 47-38. The city represents a large portion of its state’s population compared to any other city except New York City.

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No one would confuse anchorage for part of the Sun Belt, but there are striking similarities politically. The city is relatively well-educated, diverse, traditionally Republican, and has a large energy sector. As in other parts of the country, the president’s weakness is driven by a significant deficit in white college-educated Alaskan, who backed Mr. Biden from 65 percent to ૨ 27 percent – his biggest lead in any Times / CA voting group. till now.

Democrats fielded two candidates, Mr. Gavin Lwin and Mr. Gross, who describe themselves as independent candidates, have tried to make money by nominating. The state has a long independent longevity, and inadvisable voters represent the majority of the state’s electorate – whether by registration or by self-identified party identity. Independent candidates won the governor’s race in 2014, and 12 percent of voters backed various smaller-party candidates in the 2016 election. Mr. Trump received only 1 percent of the vote in 2016 – the same percentage as in traditional war-torn states like Ohio or Iowa.

If the Democrats win in both races, it will provide the party with an unusual way of controlling the Senate and clearly get the presidency. U.S. The House Electoral College will decide the presidency in the event of a tie, with each state’s congressional delegation receiving one vote. Going forward in the election, the Republicans have a 26-23 lead in the state congressional delegation, with the two parties equally divided. A democratic victory in Alaska, which has only one congressional district, would jeopardize the Republican path to a majority of state delegations.

But significant opponents of the president are reluctant to accept democratic candidates. And while Republicans have lost significant ground in the anchorage, they have retained most of their support elsewhere in the state, due to the overwhelming margins among white voters without degrees. Republicans also had surprising strength in the innate voters who are not identified as Alaskan Native or Native American, such as Hispanic or multivalist voters.

Part of the challenge for Democrats may just be voting. In the Alaska ballot, as well as in the Times / Siena poll, Mr. Gross and Ms. Calling Galvin “Democratic nominees” instead of independents, Democrats fear he undermines his appeal to disenfranchised voters. Perhaps as a result, many independent voters in the state say they will support Mr. Ho, Alaska’s independent candidate for the Senate.

Well-conducted pre-election polls tend to favor economic support for minorities over minorities, but Alaska’s long history of supporting minorities is less likely to support an unusually large share of support. .

If secondary-party candidates see their support dwindle, as has happened many times before, it is not clear whether Democrats or Republicans will benefit.

In the race for the presidency, Ms. Jorgensen’s supporters are equally divided over the performance of the president’s job, but they say they supported Mr. Trump four to four years ago.

Based on the number of job approvals, Mr. Ho seems to be a more Republican-friendly group of supporters. He says he voted for Mr. Trump by a two-to-one margin in 2016, and he also approved his margin by a large margin.

Two members from Alaska, Senator Sullivan and Representative Young, appear to have special powers. Unlike the President, Mr. Sullivan has a positive favorable rating, with 48 percent favorable and 39 percent favorable. A total of 10 percent of voters win who reject the president.

Mr. Young has one advantage of his own: unusual support from the state’s far-flung Alaska Native and Native American communities, who represent an inexperienced half of the state’s vote. People of Alaskan descent, like Mr. Young, have a long record of distributing their tickets in favor of the Republicans present, but reaching out to voters can be a challenge for them. Many communities do not have internet or road access.

A Times / Siena survey of 3૨3 potential voters in Alaska was conducted on landline and cellular telephone from 9 October. The analysis suggests that the survey has had success in reaching Alaskan origins in the outer western parts of the state. It had little success with voters on the North Slope, in towns like Utkiagvik – formerly known as Barrow. In terms of the poll results, the survey may be biased if people of Alaskan descent on the north are significantly different from the western and southwestern parts of the state. For the purpose of political survey research.

In the poll, people of Alaska descent made up 13 percent of potential voters. Mr. Young led a fairly small sample of 45 Alaskan Native or Native Americans who participated in the survey, although the same voters supported Mr. Biden and Mr. Gross.

Here are the crossbases for voting.