FiveThirtyEight’s football club prediction model favored Manchester City to win the Champions League for most of the 2019-20 season. The Cityzens were so good, in fact, that they spent 62 percent of the season at the top of the model’s chance table. Only Liverpool (the current holders of both the Champions League and Premier League trophies) and Bayern Munich (the German champions for eight seasons running and multiple Champions League candidates) managed to jump City as the favorite to win this return from the elite club football league, but no one has spent more than 22 percent of the season in their role as front-runner.
When domestic rival Liverpool were eliminated in early March, it seemed like the only thing that stood between City and their first Champions League trophy ever was Bayern. This was City’s title to win – until it was not.
When the moment presented itself for Pep Guardiola to advance to his first Champions League final as City manager, he faced the same fate as in leagues last year. He seemed to be overdoing it, and the French club Olympique Lyonnais caused the Catalans to pay a steep price, beating City 3-1. WAS controversial, a shocking lose of Raheem Sterling and a uncharacteristic error of otherwise certain goalkeeper Ederson did not make things any easier for City, but the Mancunians were probably condemned by Guardiola’s declarative decision to roll with a tragically solid 3-5-2 formation – a conservative tactical set-up he not only used had season in every league and one that effectively ignores the creative swagger of midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne for great strokes of the game.
The City’s dramatic drop in the hands of Lyon is not the first shock defeat in competition in recent memory – who can forget last season’s quarter-final second leg against Tottenham Hotspur and the adjacent VAR- controversies? – but it is perhaps the most irresponsible.
It is true that Lyon, along with Paris Saint-Germain, the most successful club in France in the 21st century, have won seven domestic titles in the past 20 seasons. But Les Gones has been the image of mediocrity this season: They finished an indisputable seventh place in Ligue 1 in 2019-20, which means they will not be eligible for next season’s Champions League unless they finish the season. win competition.
The model has not been liked by the French club since Day One. Before City eliminated, Lyon’s chances of winning the Champions League never exceeded 1 percent. Losing to Liverpool in 2017-18 and to Spurs in 2018-19 is one thing; losing to a team that started their Champions League campaign with the same chance of winning as the Czech club Slavia Prague, which currently ranks the model as the 90th-best team in the world, is a very different thing. City failed this time, unlike it has ever failed before, thus opening the door for Bayern to win their sixth European Championship.
The Bavarian club is now the heavy favorite to lift the Champions League trophy, and for good reason. Bayern have been the most unrestricted offensive force in the competition so far, setting the pace in almost every major statistical category at 90 minutes: It leads all other clubs in terms of shot-creating actions, goal-creating actions, shots on goal, total shots, expected goals, expected assists, expected goals plus expected assists, nonpenalty expected goals, nonpenalty expected goals plus expected assists, and actual goals. And his lead in some of those statistical categories is so great, it’s pretty stupid.
The creation of Bayern lies miles in front of the field
Shot and goal-producing actions during 2019-20 Champions League play for the eight quarter-finalists, through 15 August 2020
| Shot-creating actions | Goal-creating actions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Total | Per 90 min. | Total | Per 90 min. |
| Bayern Munich | 309 | 34.33 | 59 | 6.56 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 180 | 8 p.m. | 39 | 4.33 |
| the city of Manchester | 238 | 26.44 | 36 | 4.00 |
| RB Leipzig | 213 | 23.67 | 28 | 3.11 |
| Barcelona | 169 | 18.78 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Atalanta | 197 | 21.89 | 25 | 2.78 |
| Lyon | 158 | 17.56 | 19 | 2.11 |
| Atlético Madrid | 178 | 19.07 | 19 | 2.04 |
The Bavarians speak with the most productive score in the Champions League – and perhaps the best striker on the planet – in Robert Lewandowski, who leads all players in expected goals per minute per 90 minutes and only kicks PSG’s Kylian Mbappé in expected goals nonpenalty plus assists per 90 minutes. However, “Lewa” is not Bayern’s only weapon – Ivan Perišić, Thomas Müller, Philippe Coutinho, Serge Gnabry and Corentin Tolisso each run into the top 35 in expected goals without points plus assists per 90 minutes.
Given Barcelona’s 8-2 defeat, Bayern should not have had much trouble with Lyon, despite the French club’s freeze over the competition’s previous favorite. Lyon are reasonably well organized in defense, but it is better than its expected goals against so far, suggesting that something should ultimately pay off. And if that’s anything to do with the competition’s most devastating attack, Lyon can not expect its goalkeeper to come to the rescue: Among goalkeepers who have played at least six full matches, Anthony Lopes is tied for the fourth worst. expected goals after the shot minus goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Of course, Bayern and Lyon are not the only teams left in the competition. On the other side of the bracket, PSG will settle squad with RB Leipzig, and a healthy Mbappé means that Les Parisiens are the straight favorites in this semi-final match. The French phenomenon emerged as a replacement in the second half of PSG’s quarter-final matchup against Atalanta and shifted the tide for Les Rouge et Bleu.
Syn brilliant run and perfectly weighted square ball to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, who tapped the ball into a gaping net, completed PSG’s comeback and secured his first place in the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in 25 years. Having Neymar in your field does not hurt either – the ball he played against Mbappé on the way that led to Choupo-Moting’s goal was as good as it gets, proving that the Brazilian can be the best player on the field be when he decides to be.
RB Leipzig is not without hope against PSG. The club is exceptionally well-drilled and tactically versatile, and as such is capable of beating just about any opponent in a single match. But it just loses its best player (Timo Werner) to Chelsea, which means some of their attacking ability has disappeared. Red Bull could have slipped past Atlético Madrid, but if it fails to replace Werner’s goals, it could be difficult to replicate that result against PSG, who have conceded the fewest goals in the Champions League this season.
Then again, if Bayern continue to play how they play all season, it may not matter what happens in the match between PSG and Leipzig. The Bavarians at the moment seem just untouchable.
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