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Political mercury is rising in the ruling ANC, with the power plays between the fields of Cyril Ramaphosa and Ace Magashule heading to a boiling point.
This week, Ramaphosa faces a vote of no confidence in Parliament.
The ANC is also weighing legal advice on its secretary general, Magashule, and analysts are leaning toward a prediction that Magashule will not resign.
Political analysts Theo Venter and Ralph Mathekga agree that if Ramaphsoa wants to win this war, he may have to cede the battle to the Magashule field.
Over the weekend, Magashule was mobilizing at ground level for the ANC, despite the cloud of criminal charges hanging over his head.
According to Venter, Magashule is in the same position as a Covid-19 patient at the moment.
“His political oxygen is dwindling, he’s gasping for air.”
“Ramaphosa will not be eliminated on the motion. It is an open vote, so people will have to raise their hands to vote and no one in the ANC has the guts at the moment to vote against Ramaphosa, ”Venter said.
“It will be interesting to see how those in the Magashule camp, like Supra [Mahumapelo] and faith [Muthambi] handle it – they will most likely vote in a block for Ramaphosa to show unity of mission, but that can be interpreted as not being that heavily oriented towards Magashule-Zuma camp. “
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Mathekga also believes that Ramaphosa will emerge from the censorship movement intact.
“There is a group of ANC members who do not like Ramaphosa, the group led by Magashule, but it is quite risky for them to express that in this motion,” Mathekga said.
“If they do that [support he motion of no confidence] That will precipitate snap elections and they will face a huge mid-term task: we have upcoming local government elections. I don’t think they are willing to lose their president in this way, they don’t want to be out of power. They will save you. “
On the legal opinions that were weighed about Magashule, Venter said the kind of language coming from the Magashule camp was worth noting.
“Ace is dangerous because he can open names, he can make things available, he can do what Samson did in the Bible and knock down the pillars, but then he knocks down the pillars on everyone,” he said.
While Venter believed the right thing to do was for Magashule to resign while facing criminal charges “to save the name and reputation of the ANC,” Mathekga noted: “If he resigned, he would have lost.”
Mathekga added: “There are too many people involved, they will all have to resign. The more members they add, the more the confrontation will grow. “
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