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The Western Cape prepares for a third wave of Covid-19.
Michael Ciaglo, Getty Images via AFP
- The Western Cape health department is planning the “worst case scenario” for when the third wave of Covid-19 hits.
- Since healthcare workers facing patients are being vaccinated to protect them, the department hopes the public will continue with basic prevention methods, but is preparing for the worst.
- The upcoming mini Easter holidays and long weekend get-togethers, with relaxed Tier 1 regulations, are among the wild cards that will determine how bad it will be.
The Western Cape Health Department is planning for the worst regarding the anticipated third wave of Covid-19, but hopes that everyone will continue to do their part to contain the spread of the virus so that it is not so severe.
“We are planning to make it potentially as severe as the second wave,” department head Dr. Keith Cloete said Thursday.
“We are planning for the worst case.”
During a weekly update on the province’s response to the virus, the department presented variables that it believes could determine the trajectory of the third wave.
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It is expected to emerge as the country enters winter, starting in April.
It predicts that seasonal changes in behavior, due to the Easter holidays and long weekend gatherings, could trigger cluster or super spreader events.
More relaxed behavior related to the lifting of alcohol restrictions since President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the move to Level 1 was also taken into account.
There was also likely to be more interprovincial and intercommunity interaction since the Tier 1 regulations began.
I observe
Viral mutations were also being watched closely, as was the potential degree of immunity based on a small study of blood samples.
The results of that study will be known in about two weeks.
The reproductive number is also being observed in the intervening period before the third wave. The reproductive number shows how many people are likely to get the virus from one person. It is below 1 at the moment. If you cross the line of one and an increase in cases is also observed, this will be an indicator that the infections have recovered again.
So far, there has been a 16% reduction in cases, a 22% reduction in hospital admissions, and a 26% reduction in deaths.
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A slight increase in the presence of the virus has been detected in the sampling of wastewater treatment plants.
Previously, 17 were found to be virus-free, but this has already been down to nine in the monitored plants in the Western Cape.
These include the Camps Bay, Mitchells Plain, Borcherds Quarry, Wesfleur domestic, and Athlone areas, seen as early signs that Covid-19 is circulating.
Vaccination of healthcare workers continues, but not everyone will receive a vaccine right away.
They are offered to healthcare workers who care for patients and will only cover about 40% of skilled workers in the first phase of the process.
All of these variables, which are different from the circumstances of the first and second waves, mean that the department has had to plan for the worst and adjust up or down.
Cloete urged that non-medical interventions such as hand washing, not attending meetings and wearing a mask for protection continue to be followed because the population’s immunity had not yet been established.
“The third wave is real. There will be a third wave,” said Cloete.
