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By DPA 
Oct 23, 2020
By Noah Bierman / Los Angeles Times
Washington – Even if President Donald Trump loses re-election, evidence is mounting that his personality-driven populist movement will continue to dominate the Republican Party, dominating conservatives who are trying to outline alternatives.
The clearest signs can be seen among Trump acolytes making the first moves to win the 2024 Republican nomination.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who spoke in New Hampshire last week, has been taking advice from Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s former campaign manager.
Michael R. Pompeo launched a searing attack on China, Trump’s favorite foreign punching bag, in a speech to the Wisconsin State Legislature last month, one of many turns toward domestic politics for the secretary of state.
Nikki Haley, Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations, this week endorsed a Montana gubernatorial candidate who is best known for hitting the body of a reporter.
“People are laying the groundwork to solidify that Trump base,” said Amanda Carpenter, a Republican critic of Trump and a former adviser to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, another possible successor. “Even with a big loss, he will still be the king of the Republican Party in many ways.”
The prospect seemed unthinkable in 2016, when Trump was an establishment outcast who rejected attempts to prevent the nomination from being secured, and then later in the year he avoided defections just days before the general election.
Even more recently, several Republican senators in tight elections have sought to distance themselves from Trump as his election prospects have dimmed.
But Trump remains the most popular figure in his party, and even if he loses, he’s unlikely to keep quiet in future primaries, even in red states and districts where candidates have little incentive to moderate.
Candidates have seen Trump’s claims-based rhetoric, which carried over into the Tea Party movement that preceded him, dominate a large segment of Republican voters who feel marginalized or ignored amid the country’s social and economic changes. .
“There is money behind this now, and not only is there money, there is established media,” said Lawrence Rosenthal, president of the Berkeley Center for Right-wing Studies and author of “Empire of Resentment: The Toxic Embrace of Populist Nationalism.”
“Something like Fox News can turn to the next pretty face,” he added. “Breitbart is not going away.”
Rosenthal argues that American conservatism is now linked to populist movements in Europe and elsewhere, completing an ideology around Trump’s personality.
The issues on which Trump has changed the orthodoxy of the Republican Party – strict limits on immigration, hostility to trade deals, isolationist foreign policy, ignoring large budget deficits – have been widely popular with the Republican base. His style of grievance, white identity politics, and determination to destroy institutions has been accepted by leading Republicans and celebrated by his most loyal supporters.
“Elements of the right are trying to give intellectual credibility to the president’s thinking” as conservatives debate whether the party should adopt a government that is bigger and more involved in financial markets, said Lanhee J. Chen, who served as director. Utah Sen Policy The Presidential Campaigns of Mitt Romney.
“Part of the dialogue is very justified,” he added. “In part it looks like you’re trying to become a pretzel to make something look conservative, when, in fact, deep down it isn’t.”
But Trump’s level of influence depends on a variety of as yet unknown factors, including election results. A victory, of course, would make Trumpism stronger. But even a close defeat, especially one in which his supporters may blame a rigged election, could prolong his influence.
A major defeat could reduce your dominance.
Not all observers believe that the movement could survive the loss of its leader.
“The movement is made up of Trump!” said Ruth Wodak, an Austrian linguist who has written extensively on European right-wing populism.
Wodak is hesitant to make a prediction, but maintains that “without the leading figure,” many in the party will try to distance themselves “from both the style and some unconstitutional and undemocratic policies and practices.”
“People tend not to want to associate with losers, as the president likes to tell us,” said Henry Olsen, author of “The Working Class Republican.”
“If he loses by a large margin, he will be a loser with a capital L.”
Olsen, however, argues that there is more to Trump than “the cult of soft personality.”
Republicans who lack Trump’s bombast but are close to him in other ways, including Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Vice President Mike Pence, will have to decide how to position themselves as Trump’s successors, addressing the concerns of religious conservatives and others. groups that are unhappy.
Much will also depend on how former Vice President Joe Biden, if he wins the election, chooses to govern. Siding with liberal Democratic populists could drive a wedge in Trump’s coalition, but he would also risk losing some of the less populist parts of his party. If you adopt a moderate agenda, you could lose your pretensions to populism, but you could also squeeze the ability of Republicans to attack you.
Trump is “in many ways a sui generis personality,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “There are not many Donald Trumps out there. That does not mean that the populist movement and the anger that he harnessed is disappearing.”
tca / dpa
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