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Eloise’s forecast track issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) La Reunion (MeteoFrance). Image courtesy of RSMC: La Reunion
The South African Meteorological Service (Saws) has updated its information on Tropical Storm Eloise, reporting that it is gathering steam and is poised to wreak havoc in parts of South Africa. They warned of “extreme rains” that will cause widespread flooding, damage to roads and bridges and possible displacement of affected communities.
Eloise is currently in the northern parts of Madagascar, is expected to move to the southwest and enter the Mozambique channel on Thursday (Jan 21).
“Once it enters these warm waters, Eloise is expected to intensify further, reaching the intensity of an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Saturday, just before making landfall around Vilankulos, Mozambique that night. As Eloise makes landfall, storm surge, excessive rain and very destructive winds (166-213 km / h) are expected along the Mozambique coast and the adjacent interior. “
What does this mean for South Africa?
After making landfall, Eloise is expected to continue further southwest towards the border of South Africa and Mozambique. Although by land, weakening is expected to occur, however, extreme rains are still expected in southern Mozambique, eastern lowlands and the escarpment of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, as well as northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa on Sunday (January 24) and will continue. to Monday (January 25).
SAWS warned that potential impacts as a result of all this rainfall include widespread flooding, damage to roads and bridges, as well as the possible displacement of affected communities.
This system is likely to cause Gauteng and Northwest provinces to also receive some rain on Monday and Tuesday, however at this stage such rain is not expected to be of an extreme or damaging nature or to result in the impacts mentioned above. .
SAWS said it is important to note that accurately predicting the path (or trajectory) of tropical weather disturbances is indeed a great challenge.
“Tropical weather systems are known for their often erratic and unpredictable movement. SAWS will therefore continue to closely monitor this system and keep the public informed through regular updates on a variety of media platforms.”
