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The Pemba airport, where the wounded displaced from Palma, who took refuge in Afungi, including women in labor, adults and children with gunshot wounds, among other wounds suffered in attacks by rebel groups, in Pemba, were airlifted. , Mozambique, March 30, 2021. Since Sunday, several boats, private and others organized by Total and the authorities, have been transporting people from Palma, in a number that should already be higher than 2,000, but without official confirmation. EPA-EFE / ESTEVAO CHAVISSO
The future of the $ 60 billion project is now in doubt.
French energy company Total withdrew its entire staff from its Afungi liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility near Palma on Friday in the wake of last week’s insurgent attack.
This total withdrawal has put a big question mark on the future of the $ 60 billion project to tap into the vast offshore gas reserves of Mozambique’s Rovuma basin that it relies on for future development.
Total had announced a partial withdrawal after Islamic State-affiliated insurgents invaded Palma last week. But French officials and security sources in Mozambique told the Daily Maverick that Total had removed the last of its staff on Friday. This followed a resurgence of jihadist violence this week, including an attack on the Joint Task Force command post of government security forces between Palma and Afungi, some 12 kilometers to the southeast. This is the force assigned to defend Afungi.
Total’s complete withdrawal had left the defense of Afungi, and the future development of the Rovuma Basin gas fields, to Mozambican government security forces.
So far these forces have proven inadequate for the task and their capabilities appear to have been significantly diminished by the withdrawal from battle this weekend by South African private security firm Dyck Advisory Group. (PIECE OF LEATHER)
The DAG’s small helicopter gunships have been providing air support to Mozambique’s ground forces for a year and appear to have prevented the insurgents from making even greater gains. Over the past week, they have been very active in Palma, helping escort expatriate locals and contractors to safety by firing on insurgents from the air and also rescuing more than 200 stranded people.
DAG’s one-year contract expires on April 6 and it tried to negotiate an extension of at least three months, but Maputo refused to budge. Therefore, the team was to make its last outing on Friday, still fighting the insurgents in Palma, and then leave after a few days.
The Mozambican government has hired or purchased three similar Gazelle light helicopters and three larger Russian helicopter gunships from other sources, including the South African arms company Paramount, which is training Mozambican pilots to fly at least the Gazelles. But the pilots do not appear ready for combat yet, so security analysts believe there will now be a security vacuum, which the insurgents could very well fill.
There is some speculation that the Mozambican government’s refusal to renew DAG’s contract may have been a factor in Total’s decision to withdraw on Friday. Daily Maverick reached out to a company spokesman in Mozambique to confirm his withdrawal and the reasons, but has not received a response.
Total had halted the gas project in December and withdrawn most of its personnel after insurgent attacks nearby. On March 24 last week, Total announced that it would return to Afungi after a three-month absence because the government had guaranteed a safe 25-kilometer radius around the Afungi plant. Within hours the insurgents launched their offensive against Palma.
Alex Vines, Head of the Africa Program in the Expert Group Chatham House in London, he suggested to the Daily Maverick that Total may have been pressuring the Mozambican government to act jointly on security.
Total’s total staff retirement on Friday raises the important question of whether it will ever return. When asked this question, an official French source told the Daily Maverick:
“In fact, they are evaluating the situation because stop-and-go is very expensive for companies. It is difficult to work under that threat and pressure, so it will depend on the Mozambique and international response to the crisis ”.
Alex Vines, Head of the Africa Program in the Expert Group Chatham House in London, he suggested to the Daily Maverick that Total may have been pressuring the Mozambican government to act jointly on security.
“Total made the decision to withdraw very early this morning (Friday). They have not declared Overwhelming force about the project, which is an important statement, but it’s easier to walk away if the government doesn’t turn the insurgency around. “
Vines said he believed Maputo had already accepted before the Palma attacks that it needed to significantly improve its counterinsurgency efforts “and the insurgency was already in pain.”
“The Palma attack has advanced existing plans and let’s see. Significant progress will take a few years, not months, but it should be possible. Cabo Delgado is not the Sahel or Chad basin, it is a patch of insurgency. It is surprising that the majority of Mozambicans are fleeing the insurgency, now more than 700,000. This is not a popular uprising. “
“Well, DAG did not get the three-month contract extension and therefore went to Paramount.”
He added that although there had been divisions in the Mozambican government, the plan was always for Paramount to take over the acquisition of the new Gazelles and other equipment.
“In summary: Total remains committed to this project and will continue to honor its MoU agreements with the government. But Total’s withdrawal from Afungi raises the stakes and pressure on the government to greatly improve the security situation.. ”
The insurgency has also affected many South African companies and other international companies that were outsourcing Total in Afungi. A South African construction contractor, Adrian Nel, 40, of Kwa / Zulu-Natal, was killed in the insurgent attack on Friday. Dozens of other contractors have returned to South Africa. DM
