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The infamous escape clause ’of South African rugby, the provision allowing local players to be unconditionally released from their current contracts if they can organize a deal abroad, has become as polarized as the debate over the government shutdown.
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The alarmists argue that it will only aggravate the exodus of players from the country.
Others are more relaxed about it, noting that the Covid-19 pandemic holds its overseas clubs’ coffers with equal force and that the inherent uncertainty of the current climate will cause players to go for the familiar, even if it hits their pockets.
We will not know which prediction of the field was prophetic until Thursday at midnight.
But it is undeniable that the threat is real and that Super Rugby franchises in particular are vulnerable.
While multiple players could lose, here’s a look at the players on each team whose game would be considered the “strongest hit.”
BULLS: Lizo Gqoboka
New rugby director Jake White has some leading Springbok talents in his books that would interest international suitors.
A move for Warrick Gelant would rob the Bulls of a future pillar of their baseline, while the immense value of Trevor Nyakane’s piece is hard to replace, although White would at least have Marcel van der Merwe on the list.
But it is the emptiness of Gqoboka that would be a devastating blow to Loftus’s men.
There are not a lot of loose heads experienced in South Africa at the moment and the Bulls would be particularly vulnerable with just another No 1 with significant Super Rugby exposure being the green Simphiwe Matanzima.
At 30 years old, Gqoboka has reached its peak and has improved annually. It would be vital to White’s project.
LIONS: Elton Jantjies
It has to be argued that Malcolm Marx would be a critical hit, but we already saw it during the gruesome yet short Lions Super Rugby campaign in 2020.
Also, since the Bulls possibly have too many decent prostitutes in their books, Rudolf Straeuli and company could easily catch Corniel Els or Johan Grobbelaar.
After all, they have done it before …
Instead, Jantjies is the one that Lions cannot afford to let go.
Its captain and game boss is the heartbeat of the current crop, an experienced, versatile and classy exponent who is the glue for a team firmly in transition.
The alarming lack of discernible succession planning in the flyhalf position would exacerbate such a situation.
SHARKS: Lukhanyo Am
Makazole Mapimpi would be greatly missed, but a team that has reinforcements like S’bu Nkosi and Madosh Tambwe, including Lwazi Mvovo, cannot claim poverty.
It is different when it comes to Am.
Let’s be honest, the Sharks captain is a premium player.
It has an underrated change of pace.
The All Blacks identified him as the brain of the defending Springboks.
His handling is agile and his reading of the game creates cubes of opportunities for those around him.
And he is also a good poacher. Where do you find a ready-to-use replacement with that skill set?
STORMS: Frans Malherbe
There’s a reason why many fear the kind of losses the Stormers could suffer: John Dobson boasts an envious group of players with a proven class.
However, it is difficult to see Siya Kolisi suddenly change her mind regarding her public stance that South Africa provides her with everything she needs.
And while Pieter-Steph du Toit is the best player in the world, there are talented rookies at Cobus Wiese, Ernst van Rhyn and Juarno Augustus eager to make their mark.
Herschel Jantjies would leave a sizable hole and Steven Kitshoff, like Gqoboka, is at his prime, although promising Kwenzo Blose and trustworthy Ali Vermaak could replace him.
However, it is the disappearance of Malherbe’s specialized abilities that would put the Stormers in a difficult position.
A young and exciting backline needs his platform and accessory Bok, with his high defense work rate and powerful scrum, is a vital role player in that quest.
With Wilco Louw already underway, the Cape franchise would suddenly be left with, well, nothing.
