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- The new variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was detected in South Africa, is 50% more transmissible than previous variants.
- However, there is no evidence that the new variant, 501Y.V2, causes a more severe form of Covid-19.
- Data have shown that there are no notable changes in mortality rates for different age groups.
While the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, which was detected in South Africa, is 50% more transmissible than previous variants, there is no evidence that it causes a more severe form of Covid-19.
This according to a group of scientists, including Professor Salim Abdool Karim, chairman of the Ministerial Advisory Committee (MAC) on Covid-19, who gave an update on the 501Y.V2 variant during a scientific discussion Monday night.
The new variant, which emerged in South Africa during the latter part of October last year, systematically spread throughout the country, greatly affecting coastlines.
The variant, which has 23 mutations, came to dominate all other sequences and became the dominant virus that spreads throughout the country, Karim said.
The second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases that was experienced in South Africa through December and January 2021 has been much worse, with more cases and more deaths compared to the peak of the first wave in July 2020.
More contagious
According to the data, 501Y.V2 was 50% more transmittable than previous variants.
In the Western Cape, one of the worst-hit provinces, it took 107 days for older variants to reach 100,000 confirmed cases in the first wave, compared to 54 days in the second wave.
In KwaZulu-Natal, 501Y.V2 was 39% faster and took 33 days to reach 100,000 confirmed cases in the second wave, compared to 54 days in the first wave.
Karim revealed caveats to the findings that were confounded by the behavior, testing and reports.
While the second wave has seen many more infections, deaths, and hospital admissions when looking at the seven-day moving averages, the admission and mortality rates per 1000 remained similar, with no notable differences.
No more severe
When the Western Cape reached 100,000 cases during the first wave, the rate of hospital admissions per 1,000 reported cases was 159 compared to 147 when the province reached 100,000 cases during the second wave.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the hospital admission rate was 110 during the first wave compared to 106 during the second wave after reaching 100,000 cases.
READ | Why scientists are concerned about the new ‘unusual’ coronavirus variant of SA
According to data from the Western Cape, hospital admission profiles, which analyze age groups and comorbidities, were also similar in both waves.
Therefore, it was concluded that there was no evidence to suggest that the new variant caused a more severe form of Covid-19 and that the risk of dying from the 501Y.V2 variant was comparable to the older variants.
Additionally, the data showed that Covid-19 death rates for different age groups also remained similar between the first and second waves.
However, Karim noted that with more cases, there has been increased pressure on the healthcare system that could lead to an increase in deaths due to a shortage of hospital beds.
Will the vaccines work?
He admitted that there was currently no evidence that existing Covid-19 vaccines were effective against the 501Y.V2 variant, but studies were underway.
Karim said there were many unknowns that would take a long time to fully resolve and answer, including the following questions about vaccines:
- Are they free from long-term side effects?
- Do they prevent asymptomatic infection?
- Do vaccines prevent viral spread?
- Do they work against new variants?
However, since scientists are still working on the answers, Karim and other experts, including Professors Penny Moore and Alex Sigal, said the country’s current approach to launching the vaccine should not change.
Karim said the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are among the most effective vaccines “that we have for any disease and achieve the important goal of reducing clinical illnesses and hospitalizations.”
Antibodies to fight the new variant?
Sigal added that there were concerns that the new variant could evade antibodies made from older variants.
Published studies in convalescent sera suggested that natural antibodies were less effective against the 484 501 and N-terminal mutations.
He said this did not mean that a person infected by the older variants would not generate an immune response, but that the virus had been adapting.
The vaccine antibodies added by Sigal were different from natural antibodies and may or may not be affected in the same way.
Moore said they were concerned about the reduced sensitivity of the new variant to antibodies raised during the first wave, but added that there was no consensus on how much antibody was needed to protect someone.
What remained, however, was that the new variant was just as sensitive to the measure used to protect against the previous variant, which included physical distancing, use of masks and disinfection, he added.
Professor Koleka Mlisana said that more than 4,000 reinfections have been confirmed.
READ | Will vaccines against new variants of Covid work? Scientists race to find out
Opening the discussion on Monday evening, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize noted that despite the mutations, “the new week has seen some promising signs of decline in transmission.”
“Yesterday, we noticed a 23% decrease in new cases nationwide compared to seven days earlier. This could be attributed to many factors, including increased physical distancing facilitated by closure regulations.
“Having said that, the healthcare system continues to experience significant stress and hospitalizations continue to trend upward, showing an 18.3% increase on January 16 compared to seven days earlier.”
As of January 16, Mkhize said, 17,878 patients were admitted to hospitals across the country for Covid-19, with 2,472 in the ICU, 1,117 on ventilators and 5,850 requiring oxygen.
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