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By Shaun Smillie 
23h ago
South Africans are likely to receive a Covid 19 vaccine in the second quarter of next year, and not everyone will be on the initial list.
The first in line are likely to be healthcare professionals, followed by the elderly as the country embarks on a nationwide rollout, which is likely to encounter some logistical hurdles.
There has been good news lately with three pharmaceutical giants revealing that their vaccine trials are showing promising results.
Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine has been shown to be 95% effective, while the Moderna vaccine reduced the risk of contracting the virus by 94.5%. This week it was announced that the Oxford vaccine showed a strong immune response in the elderly. The news comes as most of Europe is experiencing a second wave of the virus and infection rates are starting to rise again in South Africa.
But as these vaccines become available, Rajesh Narwal, a health systems adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), believes there will be a rush from nations to secure stocks.
“The point is that many of these vaccines have already been previously procured by richer nations,” said Narwal, who spoke at a webinar yesterday that discussed the implications of an international Covid 19 vaccine policy.
But the WHO is making sure other nations have access to the vaccines, even though this will mean producing two billion units by the end of 2021.
This will be through the COVAX program that was launched in April by the WHO, the European Commission and France. COVAX, in part, aims to ensure universal access to any Covid-19 vaccine.
Narwal expects South Africa to see the arrival of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year, but more likely in the second quarter.
Like other countries, South Africa is poised to take a phased approach. The first stage would see health workers prioritized and immunized, the elderly would follow. The second stage will see 11% to 20% of the vaccinated population where people with comorbidities and high priority teachers will receive the vaccine. In stage three, up to 50% of the population will be immunized, including other essential workers.
“This access must be done in such a way that it does not put pressure on economies and people,” he added. The vaccine is likely to be a double dose combination.
One concern Narwal has is that anti-vaccines refuse to take the vaccine.
“A lot also depends on the vaccine that countries adopt,” Narwal said.
Under COVAX, the poorest nations will pay between $ 1 and $ 3 per dose.
Narwhal further warns that any delay in taking steps to prepare for the arrival of the vaccine could cost a country lives and the economy.
Khadija Jamaloodien of the National Health Department said the government has put in place measures to facilitate the arrival of a vaccine. A ministerial advisory committee on the Covid-19 vaccine has been created. There is also a National Strategy Framework, which is designed to make recommendations to the minister on financing, cost implications and other issues. The National Strategy Framework is still under development, although different groups within it, Jamaloodien said, are working on issues related to vaccines.
“The goal is to have access and supply a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine,” he said.
But if South Africa were to go down the path of making Covid-19 vaccines, there will be a number of hurdles, said Glaudina Loots, director of Health Innovation at the Department of Science and Technology.
He said that making a vaccine is difficult. It would also be expensive to set up a facility to manufacture a vaccine in Africa. “To build capacity in Africa, we have to keep in mind that we need $ 250 million to establish a facility that can fill 500 million doses, and the installation of this facility will take two years.” she said.
Additional R2bn would be needed for manufacturing.
Meanwhile, Narwal warned that health authorities and South Africans must guard against virus fatigue as we approach the holiday season and look forward to the early arrival of the vaccine next year.
Saturday’s star
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