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It will take at least two years for the Indian film industry, a provider of song and dance shows for millions, to recover financially from the coronavirus pandemic, which threatens large-scale projects and puts tens of thousands of jobs at risk.
That was the grim assessment of a dozen of Bollywood’s top producers, distributors and actors, the film industry in India’s commercial capital, Mumbai, during a video conference this week, one of the participants said.
“Making movies has always been a gamble, and now some of us can pack for next year,” said one filmmaker responsible for many successful action movies, on condition of anonymity. “We will have to beg people to come to the movie theaters.”
Such bleak prospects, even after the closure is lifted, threaten box office receipts that account for 60% of the industry’s profits, prompting producers to say big-budget movies and outlandish filming in locations foreigners will be filed.
“The movies will have a hard time,” said Jehil Thakkar, a partner at accounting firm Deloitte India. “Even after the lockdown is lifted, I would expect many people’s psyches to be avoiding crowded places.”
Bollywood came to a complete halt, with movie production and theaters closed across the country, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a 40-day blockade to curb the virus, which has infected 31,000 people and killed more than 1,000 in India.
Nearly 9,500 theaters are closed, and businesses in multiplex and single-screen cinemas are unlikely to bounce back for weeks or even months, as the infection fears that discretionary spending will persist.
“Theaters may not open before mid-June at the Indian level and normal occupation will not return until August,” Karan Taurani, an analyst at investment firm Elara Capital, said in a note, adding that they may have They cut prices to attract viewers.
Industry figures show that India makes 1,200 movies in a typical year, but Taurani sees big-budget movies coming under pressure for the upcoming fiscal year as producers fight a liquidity crisis amid falling prices. box office receipts.
For example, the launch of Bollywood’s first attempt at a multi-hero action franchise, filmmaker Rohit Shetty’s “Sooryanvanshi,” has been indefinitely postponed from a late-March schedule.
“It is likely that even after the reopening of theaters, only smaller movies are released, so producers have an idea of how many people are coming to them,” Shailesh Kapoor, head of the Ormax agency, which tracks the Bollywood movies. .
With such an unlikely reopening until at least mid-May, and with no new releases in the past month, trade analyst Girish Johar estimates box office revenue lost at more than $ 130 million during the period.
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Shares of India’s two largest multiplex operators, PVR and INOX Leisure, have fallen more than 40% from all-time highs in late February.
Broker Emkay also downgraded both its “hold” and “buy” ratings, saying they would experience more than 50% drops in visitor numbers, ticket sales, advertising revenue, and food and beverage sales in the fiscal year 2020-21.
Theater owners fear that in the future they will have to register customers’ names and addresses, check temperatures, and ensure disinfection, masking, and social distancing, all of which lower the audience experience and increase costs. .
The top-grossing actors and directors can take advantage of the savings to overcome the recession, but it will affect tens of thousands of ordinary workers who are paid by the project, from movie extras to dancers, actors and technicians.
“Things are pretty bad for us right now, but worse for those who work on our movies on a day-to-day basis,” said Vinod Bhanushali, head of marketing for the production company T-Series, which has 12 movies stopped by the crisis. .
Industry veterans warn that the steepest drop in years may come for Bollywood, as virus infections in Mumbai, home to the Hindi film industry, account for about a fifth of India’s figure.
“Everything will have to be calculated after the closure ends and when some form of normality returns,” Bhanushali said.
For Sakshi Bhagat, whose dreams of becoming a filmmaker lured her to Mumbai in 2013 from the Varanasi city, north of the temple, the confinement has been a rough blow.
“It has been very difficult to get payments from the production houses for the work I did,” said the assistant director. “No one wants to pay.”
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