Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers show a different story.



[ad_1]

On April 7, the government introduced a bill that allows it to act quickly and make decisions on temporary measures when necessary. Home care visits have been banned since April 1, and the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs asked people to refrain from nonessential travel, adding: “Keep your distance and take personal responsibility.”

Denmark announced widespread closures on March 11 and was one of the first in Europe to close borders, shops, schools and restaurants, and to ban large gatherings. Norway began introducing travel restrictions in mid-March and has since closed schools and daycare centers, banned the use of holiday properties, canceled events, and closed businesses such as beauty salons and hairdressers.
The death rate in Sweden has now increased significantly more than in many other European countries, reaching more than 21 per 100,000 people, according to population-controlled Johns Hopkins University figures.

By contrast, Denmark has recorded more than seven deaths per 100,000 people, and both Norway and Finland less than four.

Sweden has recorded 18,640 cases of coronavirus and 2,194 deaths among its population of 10.3 million people.
Denmark has had 8,773 cases and 422 deaths in a population of 5.8 million, Norway 7,449 cases and 202 deaths among its 5.4 million people, and Finland 4,576 cases and 190 deaths in its 5.5 million population.
Denmark and Norway are now beginning to ease their blockages, with children returning to school in the past 10 days, in smaller classes with markers to help keep them two meters away. Salons and other companies with individual contact will reopen in Norway starting Monday. Finland has extended its restrictions until May 13.
A little further afield, the Czech Republic, which has a population of similar size (10.7 million) to Sweden, has recorded 7,404 cases and 221 deaths, about two deaths per 100,000 people. It took a very different approach to the pandemic by closing schools, closing restaurants and bars and most stores, restricting travel, and mandating mandatory quarantines for travelers from regions at risk in early March. It has also made it mandatory for people to wear face masks in public.
Sweden has not had as many deaths as Italy or Spain, which have registered around 44 and 49 deaths per 100,000 people respectively, or even the United Kingdom, where there have been more than 31 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. But there are several complex differences between Sweden and these countries that make direct comparisons difficult, such as Italy having a larger population, more smokers, and a greater number of closely knit multigenerational households.
People enjoy the warm spring weather as they sit by the water at Hornstull in Stockholm on April 21.

The Swedish approach

On March 28, a petition signed by 2,000 Swedish researchers, including Carl-Henrik Heldin, president of the Nobel Foundation, called on the nation’s government to “take immediate action to comply with the recommendations of the World Health Organization ( WHO)”.

The scientists added: “The measures should aim to severely limit contact between people in society and greatly increase the ability to screen people for Covid-19 infection.”

“These measures should be implemented as soon as possible, as is currently the case in our neighboring European countries,” they wrote. “Our country should not be an exception to work to stop the pandemic.”

An employee wears a vest reading

The petition says that trying to “create a collective immunity, in the same way that occurs during an influenza epidemic, has little scientific support.”

Swedish authorities have denied having a strategy to create collective immunity, one of which was rumored that the UK government was previously working on the pandemic, drawing widespread criticism, before imposing a strict closure.

Lena Hallengren, Sweden’s Minister of Health and Social Affairs, told CNN: “There is no strategy to create collective immunity in response to Covid-19 in Sweden. Sweden shares the same goals as all other countries: save lives and protect the public health “.

Jan Albert, a professor in the Karolinska Institute’s Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, told CNN: “It is clear that Sweden had more deaths [than many other European countries] so far, and that is probably at least in part because we have not had such a strict block and not a block imposed by law. “

But he said he believed most scientists in Sweden had been “relatively quiet” about the herd’s immunity plan because they thought it might work.

A nurse monitors a Covid-19 patient in the Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) department of Karolinska Hospital in Solna, near Stockholm, Sweden, on April 19.

“What is the strategy of the other countries?” I ask. “That [herd immunity] it was the only thing that would finally stop this, unless there is a vaccine in time, which is quite unlikely.

“The truth is that no one, nor anyone in Sweden, nor anyone else anywhere, knows what the best strategy is. Time will tell.”

He said he believed that tighter locks “only serve to flatten the curve and flattening the curve does not mean that cases disappear, they just move on time.”

“And as long as the health system can reasonably cope and provide good care to those who need care, it is not clear that having cases later in time is better.”

Tables are covered outside closed restaurants in the popular tourist area of ​​Nyhavn in Copenhagen, Denmark on April 15.

Protecting the system

Albert believes that the Swedish health system is coping, as does Peter Lindgren, managing director of the Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE). Lindgren told CNN that the number of people treated in intensive care units for several weeks had been stable, “so it has to be successful in that regard.”

But he added: “I think what failed was that an illness has been transmitted to the care centers for the elderly. As a consequence, we have deaths.”

Hallengren, the Swedish health minister, told CNN: “One of the main concerns now in Sweden is to strengthen protection for those who live in nursing homes.”

She said it was still “too early to draw firm conclusions about the effectiveness of the measures taken in Sweden.”

Cars at a traffic checkpoint in Hyvinkaa, Finland, on April 15, during the closure of Uusimaa, the nation's most populous region.

He said that the fact that Sweden did not have a “total blockade” did not mean “that everything remains the same” and that this measure is “continually reevaluated” with the help of experts “to ensure that the right measures are taken in the right way” . hour.”

Gatherings of more than 50 people are prohibited and people are “highly recommended” to avoid nonessential domestic travel, he added.

Sweden’s foreign minister told the British newspaper The Guardian on Monday that it was too early to judge his country’s approach to Covid-19.

“There have been a lot of misunderstandings,” said Ann Linde. “We have more or less the same goals as any other government … And as we have always said, we are perfectly prepared to adopt more binding regulations if the population does not follow us.”

She said the rather high number of deaths “was certainly not part of the plan” and said the large number of deaths in nursing homes was “an area where we have failed.”

The Swedish Public Health Agency forecast this week that nearly a third of people in Stockholm would have been infected with Covid-19 by May 1. That would be more than 200,000 people, far more than the number of cases registered nationwide so far.
Less than 24 hours later, there was confusion when the health agency announced Twitter He had “detected errors” in the report, but then said that his mathematical model had been updated and reiterated that 26% of Stockholm’s population would have been infected before May 1.

He said there were approximately 75 unconfirmed cases for every reported case of Covid-19, but that the peak of infection spread had passed.

Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said on Friday that his country would probably be in a better place to resist a second wave of coronavirus because many people in Sweden have now been exposed to the virus.

He told the BBC that the relatively relaxed approach “had worked in some ways” as there were always at least 20% of intensive care beds empty and capable of serving patients with Covid-19.

“We believe we passed the peak of transmission a week ago,” he added.

When asked if Sweden’s approach will help him resist a possible second wave, Tegnell said he believed it would. “It will definitely affect the rate of reproduction and slow down the spread,” he said, but added that it would not be enough to achieve “collective immunity.”

“We know very little about the immunity of this disease, but most experts in Sweden agree that some kind of immunity we will definitely have because many people who have been tested so far have produced antibodies … We hope this will. make it easier for us in the long run. “

When asked if the death toll would have been lower if Sweden had followed the same path as other European countries by introducing strict restrictions, Tegnell replied: “That is a very difficult question to answer at this stage. At least 50% of our death toll is inside “Nursing homes and we have a hard time understanding how a blockage could stop the introduction of the disease into nursing homes.”

Whether the Swedish Covid-19 strategy has been successful or unsuccessful may not be clear in the coming months, but as countries around the world count their dead and wonder if they could have done more to stop the spread of the virus, the world will be watching.

CNN’s Simon Cullen and Ivana Kottasova contributed to the reports.



[ad_2]