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South Africa should know the true death toll of the coronavirus pandemic in a few weeks, says the chairman of the Covid-19 Ministerial Advisory Committee, Professor Salim Abdool Karim.
In an interview with AAssociated press, Karim said that the official death toll from Covid-19 is more than 15,700, but the actual number is likely more than 30,000 when unrecorded deaths in hospitals are taken into account.
He said a nationwide survey on the presence of antibodies to the virus is expected to show results soon.
In a national address on Wednesday night (September 16), President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the government will conduct a nationwide survey to assess the actual levels of infection in society.
“This survey, known as a seroprevalence survey, uses antibody tests to see if a person has been exposed to the coronavirus,” the president said.
“A nationwide study would allow scientists to estimate the extent of asymptomatic infections and immunity within the population, as well as better understand the transmission patterns of the virus.”
Karim said that South Africa reached its ‘peak number of cases’ in mid-July, adding that the country is now seeing substantial declines in new confirmed cases, deaths and hospitalizations.
“We have a full cascade of indicators that are constantly going in the same downward direction. This gives me confidence that we are heading towards a low transmission threshold, ”said Abdool Karim. “We are now in a good position to relax restrictions while we remain vigilant to respond to any signs of a second increase.”
Karim said that at its peak, South Africa registered an average of more than 12,000 new cases daily. The country now averages less than 2,000 daily and is declining.
“We should soon reach 580 new cases per day, which for our population of 58 million is considered by the World Health Organization as the threshold for low transmission,” he said.
Simplified restrictions
This drop in cases prompted Ramaphosa to announce a move to a level 1 lockdown, further easing restrictions.
The president said that the country has ‘weathered the storm’ in its fight against the coronavirus and that the data shows a clear downward trend in the country.
However, he warned that ‘however you look at it, we are still in the middle of a deadly epidemic’ and said the most important task is to ensure that the country is not affected by a second wave of infections as is being seen internationally.
Some of the eased restrictions include:
- Meetings will be allowed as long as the number of people does not exceed 50% of the normal capacity of a venue, up to a maximum of 250 people for indoor meetings and 500 people for outdoor meetings;
- The government will gradually ease restrictions on international travel for business and pleasure starting October 1, subject to containment measures. A list of allowed countries based on the latest scientific data will be published;
- Alcohol for home consumption can be sold between 09:00 and 17:00 from Monday to Friday;
- A curfew will be applied at night between 00:00 and 04:00;
Ramaphosa said this will be the ‘new normal’ and the updated restrictions will be released in the coming days, providing more clarity.
Read: The latest alcohol rules in South Africa are a ‘punch to the stomach’
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