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Tens of thousands of soldiers have been put on hold in South Africa amid mounting tensions as one of the world’s strictest blockades is approaching its fifth week.
Cyril Ramaphosa, president and commander-in-chief, has mobilized the 73,000 men and women in the South African armed forces, although it is unclear how many of them could be deployed.
Around 3,000 soldiers are already on the streets in support of the police and medical personnel.
South Africa has recorded 3,465 cases of coronavirus, the second highest number on the continent after Egypt, and 58 deaths.
On Wednesday night, Ramaphosa announced a $ 26 billion economic and social aid package, and on Thursday he will set out how the blockade will be lifted.
The restrictions are likely to be lifted very gradually, officials suggest, although it is widely recognized that the blockade has caused huge difficulties for tens of millions and requires increasing levels of coercion to stay in its current form.
Experts said the objective of deploying soldiers would be “a show of strength to get people off the streets.”
Gareth Newham, from the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, said: “We are already starting to see an increase in theft, looting, vandalism, and that is only going to get worse due to the level of despair, the higher level of hunger, and the police are already overloaded.
“The ability to draw in large numbers [of troops] It would have a psychological effect, but since the military is not trained in law and order, there is clearly a high risk that soldiers will shoot and kill people. “
Although the blockade has been widely respected, there have been sporadic incidents of violence in recent days, with crowds targeting trucks carrying food packages or delivering food to supermarkets. Hundreds of armed police officers foiled an attempt to loot a shopping center near Cape Town on Wednesday.
Earlier in the week, hundreds of people in Mitchell Plains Township battled with police, throwing rocks and setting up barricades in the streets with burning tires, on undelivered food packages.
South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world and has a tradition of street protests against the failures of the authorities in the provision of basic services.
“It is a very, very dangerous situation,” said Scott Drimie of the thinktank Southern Africa Food Lab. “When you add hunger to that, now there is deprivation … and then you add law enforcement with the military and the police , which must be handled with great care. “
The Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies said that if people were unable to obtain food, “there is a good chance of violent conflict, including widespread looting.”
The latest government figures show that 118,000 people have been accused of breaking the blockade restrictions.
Defense Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula confirmed the decision to mobilize the army on Wednesday. “If you look at the numbers and the rate at which the infection has increased, you will realize that at some point we may need the type of human deployment that has never been seen before,” he told local radio.
Some serious crimes have fallen dramatically during the shutdown, according to figures released Wednesday. Murders have decreased by 72% in the last month compared to the same period last year, assaults have decreased by 85% and violent robberies by 70%.
Police Minister Bheki Cele said more than 190 road blocks had been implemented daily across the country and more than 680 vehicle checkpoints. “Raids have been carried out that have led to the closure of illegal liquor outlets and nonessential services such as mines, factories and other companies being detained,” Cele said Wednesday.
The figures also show a sharp drop in recorded gender-based violence, although experts and activists said this was likely due to difficulties women faced in communicating with police or others to report the attacks.
Tina Thiart, a member of the board of directors of 1,000 Women One Voice, an NGO that works through grassroots initiatives to combat violence against women and children, said that women were locked up with abusers and that reports to the NGO of violence from genre “really shot up”.
“The statistics we get from everywhere … we think it’s much higher. It comes in waves but this time it feels much worse. There is a real problem in the camps that have been established for the homeless. We are also receiving calls from wealthy homes, ”said Thiart.
Experts said an increase in reports of child abuse also suggested an increase in gender-based violence.
Last week, Ramaphosa said he had ordered that family protection police units be strengthened because “women and girls are being terrorized within their own homes, forcing them to make desperate calls for help.”
South Africa’s efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19 have been widely praised. The country has built on long experience in the fight against infectious diseases to launch an ambitious detection and testing campaign that involves tens of thousands of medical personnel looking for outbreaks of infection.
However, with the arrival of winter, there is a fear of a rapid increase in cases if the blockade is lifted too soon.
