Second wave of Covid-19 ‘inevitable’ predicts SA’s top scientist



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By Karen Singh Article publication time11h ago

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Durban: A second wave of Covid-19 infections is inevitable as taverns and nightclubs become super-spreaders of the virus.

The warning was issued by Professor Salim Abdool Karim, chairman of the ministerial advisory committee on Covid-19.

Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist, spoke at SAfm on Monday.

This follows Covid-19 super-spread events across the country, including more than 80 infected people in a bar in Cape Town, including 37 undergraduate students. At the University of Fort Hare in the Eastern Cape, about 30 students tested positive for the coronavirus after a two-night drinking spree earlier this month.

Abdool Karim said that with the loosening of lockdown regulations, people had become complacent and tired of wearing masks and social distancing.

He said that only one infected person was needed to create a super spread event in mass gatherings.

“We need people to change their behavior,” said Abdool Karim.

He referenced the United Kingdom, the United States, South Korea and Spain as some of the more than 60 countries that experienced a second wave.

Abdool Karim said he was optimistic that SA could reach a stage where people could live with the virus, resulting in low-level transmissions of between 1,000 and 2,000, or less, per day.

“We have a situation where taverns and nightclubs are becoming a source of the spread of the virus, and if that happens, then it awaits us. It makes it inevitable that we have a second wave, ”he said.

Lucky Ntimane, coordinator of the South African Liquor Traders Council, said the council was concerned about reports of several liquor merchants failing to adhere to Covid-19 regulations governing the sale of spirits.

He said that media outlets that did not follow basic Covid-19 protocols in their business operations were putting unnecessary focus on the industry.

“Outlets must operate in accordance with their license conditions and Covid-19 regulations, and if we don’t, we are left with no choice but to demand that the necessary laws take their course.”

Ntimane said the liquor industry remained committed to working with the government to create a social contract. “This will ensure that we partner together to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, while protecting lives and safeguarding livelihoods in this important sector,” he said.

He said the council was in talks with law enforcement officials in the affected provinces to ensure that liquor outlets that don’t adhere to regulations face the consequences.

Abdool Karim said that although SA was approaching the summer season and sunlight was known to kill the virus to some extent, public behavior was the main factor contributing to the spread of the virus.

With the festive season approaching and more travel expected, Abdool Karim said a more local approach might be needed to mitigate the spread, for example by closing provincial borders, a decision that would not be taken lightly.

As of October 18, the Health Department had registered 703,793 cases of Covid-19, with 1,662 new cases identified since the last report, while 18,471 people had died.

The Mercury



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