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Last year ministers were warned that the United Kingdom must have a sound plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its potentially catastrophic economic and social consequences in a confidential Cabinet Office briefing leaked to the Guardian.
The detailed document warned that even a mild pandemic could cost tens of thousands of lives, and established the essential “capacity requirements” to mitigate risks to the country, as well as the potential harm of not doing so.
It occurs when the death toll in the UK hospital from coronavirus is heading towards 20,000. Less than a month ago, NHS England medical director Professor Stephen Powis said the country “would have done very well” to stay below this bleak milestone.
Marked as “official, sensitive”, the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) was signed by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, as well as a senior national security adviser to the prime minister who was asked Guardian not to name.
Recommendations included included the need to store PPE (personal protective equipment), arrange advanced purchase agreements for another essential kit, establish procedures for disease surveillance and follow-up contacts, and develop plans to control an excessive increase in deaths.
Having plans to help British citizens abroad and repatriate them to the UK was also marked as a priority.
All of these areas have come under relentless scrutiny since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and the government has been accused of being too slow to react to the crisis. It is now under sustained pressure to provide answers on what was done at the national and local levels to provide the support that planners have long called for, amid growing fears that ministers were “caught” by the crisis and They have been catching up ever since.
The Cabinet Office document, spanning more than 600 pages, not only looked at the risk of a viral flu pandemic, but also specifically addressed the potential for a coronavirus outbreak (the earliest Sars and Mers were both coronaviruses), although it considered this potentially much less damaging.In reality, the UK is dealing with a hybrid of the two, raising new questions as to whether ministers were quick enough to recognize the dangers and were able to rely on preparations already in place. March.
Building on previous safety assessments and records of health risks, the document implicitly warned ministers that they could not afford to be complacent. “A new pandemic virus could be highly transmissible and highly virulent,” he said. “Therefore, pandemics are significantly more severe than the reasonable worst case scenario … they are possible.”
The government declined to provide specific details of the preparations made before the pandemic, but said it would be unfair to say that they were “starting from scratch,” pointing to planning exercises carried out in recent years.
“This is an unprecedented global pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided at all times by the best scientific advice,” said a government spokesman.
“The government has been proactive in implementing the lessons learned around pandemic preparedness. This includes getting ready with legislative proposals that could quickly adapt to what became the Coronavirus Act, plans to strengthen excess death planning, planning for the recruitment and deployment of retired staff and volunteers, and guidance for stakeholders and sectors across the government. “
But a source with knowledge of the Cabinet Office document said the UK had not adequately focused on the pandemic threat, and that it had been outright surprised.
“The really frustrating thing is that there were plans. But in recent years, emergency planning has focused on political drivers, such as Brexit and floods.
“There was a national plan to deal with a pandemic that should have been implemented. But who took control of that? And who was responsible for making sure the plans were made locally? The truth is, I’m not sure anyone was doing this. ”
The source added: “We have been paying for third party fire and theft insurance for a pandemic, not comprehensive. We have been caught. “
The Cabinet Office’s secret minister, Rachel Reeves, said the revelations were “alarming … and raised serious questions about the government’s planning and preparation for a coronavirus pandemic.”
She demanded her opposite number, Michael Gove, give a statement to parliament on Monday to explain “if this report was read and what actions were taken.”
The NSRA sets out a series of Possible Worst Reasonable Scenarios (RWCS) for the spread of a flu-like viral pandemic, which emergency planning experts consider the benchmark for their preparedness in the current crisis.
It also included predictions that provide insight into how planners believe a crisis like this current emergency could evolve.
The document said:
• A pandemic would develop in up to “three waves,” and each wave is expected to last 15 weeks … “with the peak weeks occurring at weeks 6 and 7 on each wave.”
• 50% of the population would be infected and experience pandemic influenza symptoms during one or more waves. The actual number of infected people would be greater than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases.
• A moderate virulence pandemic could lead to 65,600 deaths.
• The potential cost to the UK could be £ 2.35tn.
• Even after the end of the pandemic, it may take months or even years for health and social services to recover.
• There would be great public outrage at any perceived mismanagement of government preparations and response to the emergency.
Whitehall sources acknowledge that turning “plans on the page in real life” has always been a challenge, but said Brexit planning had helped in some ways.
The government spokesman said his response to the emergency had protected lives and businesses: “Our response has ensured that the NHS has received all the support it needs to ensure that everyone who requires treatment has received it, as well as provide protection to companies and reassure workers. “
But political pressure is mounting on the government. On Wednesday, the Labor leader, Sir Keir Starmer, demanded that the ministers explain why “we were slow in the running of the bulls, in the tests, in the protective equipment.”
In an interview with the BBC on Thursday, Dame Deirdre Hine, who produced a report for the government on the swine flu pandemic, said she feared the government had not implemented plans for a pandemic. “I think they have been accommodating,” he said.
