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Experts say there should be no going back to a harsh confinement, despite the fact that South Africans’ drinking, partying and socializing caused an apparent spike in Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, and the number of new ones. Daily infections reached 1866 on Wednesday.
As President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to address the nation again next week on the status of the pandemic, experts have urged the government not to introduce another strict lockdown. Instead, they say, it should look to other countries’ handling of the pandemic during its warmer seasons, during which movement, borders and surveillance were at the forefront of efforts to keep the number of infections under control and at the same time. while keeping economies open.
Health Minister Dr. Zweli Mkhize was at a World Health Organization briefing yesterday and said that the number of new Covid-19 cases had decreased since July, but that for the past six weeks it had been from 1500 to 2000.
While hospital admissions and deaths had been declining, Mkhize said that in the past three weeks new clusters of infections had been detected in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape and that all provinces were on “high alert” for a resurgence.
He said a national plan had been developed to mitigate a potential resurgence, defined as an increase of around 20% in cases, based on four “key tactical strategies,” including tracking surveillance indicators, identifying and executing interventions, ongoing monitoring and evaluation, as well as reports and feedback. Provincial plans would incorporate early warning systems.
Mkhize highlighted delays in obtaining an effective vaccine and diminishing resources as a result of the impact of the pandemic on the economy as concerns. He also noted “pandemic fatigue” and declining levels of compliance with containment measures, as well as the exhaustion of the country’s front-line health workers, and said these two factors combined could exacerbate a possible resurgence of the virus. .
Epidemiologist Jo Barnes said the recent increase in cases was expected and followed a trend seen in other countries entering the summer months.
“There may be more end-of-the-year events and parties as we move into the summer season, so understandably there is a lot more human contact. But I’m not convinced that a hard second block is the answer for us, ”Barnes said.
“It is true that the first one saved lives and I have no doubt that progress was made in which we literally turned the peak.” However, the government now needed to provide more support and not just punish people who don’t wear masks.
It was also important to step up safety messages asking the public to maintain social distancing, avoid large gatherings and wear masks, he said. Also, “keep super broadcast events low and avoid large group gatherings, which has contributed to a large number of cases,” he said. additional.
Western Cape Prime Minister Alan Winde is vehemently opposed to another tough blockade. His party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has suggested that livelihoods will be lost and Winde previously suggested that provincial governments should take a localized approach to managing hotspots, rather than shutting down industries across the board.
Economics professor Philippe Burger said the South African economy could not afford another hard lockdown or “anything like it.” “We saw… under lockdown levels 4 and 5, we lost 2.2 million jobs.
“We could expect something very similar if we go into a hard block or something like that again.”
According to Burger, gross domestic product (GDP) could see an improvement in the third quarter, but this would still amount to a net contraction of 8% or 9% of annual GDP. The number of people going to work was dramatically lower than before, although this could be attributed to large-scale job losses and, to a lesser extent, professionals working from home.
– [email protected], additional information from Bernadette Wicks
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