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Health Minister Dr. Zweli Mkhize has confirmed that the government is reconsidering a series of restrictions as the country seeks to ease its lockdown.
“In previous statements related to the restrictions under the National State of Disaster, we committed to reviewing them periodically as we reassess the state of the epidemic in South Africa and this is indeed what we have done,” he said.
Having observed evidence suggesting a sustained decline in coronavirus transmissions, Mkhize said the Health Department has considered easing restrictions in these areas:
- The curfew at night;
- The current limitations around the sale of alcohol;
- Limitations around religious gatherings;
- Certain travel restrictions.
Mkhize said these recommendations have been made as part of the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC), which will make final recommendations to cabinet.
The presidency confirmed that President Cyril Ramaphosa will chair a virtual meeting of the President’s Coordinating Council on Tuesday, which will focus on an NCCC report on the country’s response to the pandemic.
“Regardless of the decisions that are made, it is important to emphasize that the risk of spreading and contracting Covid-19 still remains and that non-pharmaceutical interventions remain important as we learn to coexist with the coronavirus,” Mkhize said.
Cases in decline
Mkhize said the number of cases detected across the country continues to decline and that since Aug. 22 the country has reported fewer than 3,000 cases a day. By comparison, at the height of the epidemic during the month of July, between 10,000 and 15,000 cases were reported per day, he said.
“Supporting this decline is also a demonstrable decline in people under investigation, general ward admissions, ICU admissions, deaths, and excess deaths. The coherence between these indicators assures us that, in fact, we are in the middle of a depression in the pandemic, ”he said.
The Health Minister also cited data from the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) which is tracking coronavirus data in the country’s hospitals.
The data from the NICD show a clear change in the behavior of the epidemic with downward trends in admissions and deaths in general wards and ICUs. In total, 66,515 patients were studied with 4,314 currently admitted.
The hospital discharge rate was 75%, while the in-hospital fatality rate was 17.5%. The median age for admissions was 50 to 59 years and the median age for deaths was 60 to 69 years.
At the height of the epidemic, these sample hospitals reported between 6,400 and 6,800 admissions per week.
Immunity?
With South Africa seeing its coronavirus surge roll back, Mkhize said this raises the question of the level of immunity that may already exist across the country.
He referred to the ‘seroprevalence’ of the country, which is the level of a pathogen in a population, measured in blood serum. Initial seroprevalence studies of convenience samples have shown a seroprevalence of between 29 and 40%, he said.
Interestingly, the reviewed models currently predict that there are probably around 12 million South Africans in total (detected and undetected) infected with coronavirus; this translates to approximately 20% of the population.
“We are currently embarking on a national seroprevalence study that should bring us closer to the true seroprevalence of coronavirus antibodies and give us a more accurate indication of our national immunity status.
“Once the national study is completed, we will communicate those results to the public.”
Read: Ramaphosa holds meetings ahead of expected move to level 1 lockdown for South Africa
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