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JOHANNESBURG – An estimated 12 million people, almost a fifth of the population, may have contracted the coronavirus in South Africa, says the Health Minister, as the country records a significant decrease in new infections.
South Africa has so far registered 650,749 cases or 47.8 per cent of the total number registered in Africa. At least 15,499 of those infected have died.
But the actual number of people who became infected could be much higher, possibly 18 times more, based on estimates extrapolated from sample antibody studies.
READ: Mkhize: SA passing the COVID-19 peak
The revised models “currently predict that there are probably around 12 million” South Africans with detected or undetected coronavirus, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said in a statement.
“This translates to about 20 percent of the population.”
South Africa is conducting a national study aimed at providing accurate figures on the prevalence of antibodies to coronavirus, a sign of infection, among its 58 million people.
READ: COVID-19 claims 52 more lives in South Africa
Mkhize said the drop in the number of infections detected daily “raises the question of the level of immunity that may already exist in society.”
Leading vaccinologist Shabir Madhi, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand, suggested that infection rates could reach 40 percent in densely populated areas of the country.
“What we’ve seen in South Africa, at least based on early data … is that in densely populated areas of the country … between 35 and 40 percent of people have been infected with this virus,” Madhi , who is also in charge of the South African phase of Oxford’s COVID-19 vaccine trial, said in an online meeting.
READ: COVID-19: SA recovery rate is approaching 90%
The number of cases in South Africa has fallen from 10,000 to 15,000 a day in July to just under 2,000 in recent days.
On Monday, the number of new daily infections dropped to 956, the second time in less than a week that the number fell below 1,000.
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