“Immunity passport”: life after closure

From an “immunity passport” to a “traffic light system,” health authorities and scientists around the world are grappling with how to come back to life after coronavirus blockages.

This week, European nations such as Italy, Spain and France appear to have reached the peak of their epidemics, and the worst is yet to come in the United Kingdom and the United States.

Australian leaders also believe that social distancing measures have worked to “flatten the curve” at home, even though they remain concerned about unknown sources of community transmission.

But with a ray of hope on the horizon, thoughts are now turning to the delicate issue of how to remove severe restrictions on public life without sparking an increase in new cases that could overwhelm intensive care departments.

So far, several European countries have raised the problematic and scientifically unproven idea of ​​using blood tests to deploy an “immunity passport” that could allow those with antibodies to the coronavirus to have permission to return to work.

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock recently spoke of a “certificate of immunity” or “bracelet” at a press conference after recovering from the disease.

“People who have had the disease have the antibodies and then have immunity can demonstrate that and therefore return to normal life as much as possible,” he said.

“That is something we will do and see, but it is too early in science … to be able to clarify that.”

But Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the University of Edinburgh, Eleanor Riley, said the idea could provide a false sense of security that would lead people to die, while others could risk infection to leave the house. .

In Germany, a study involves 100,000 resident antibody tests in the coming weeks that could eventually allow people to leave their homes.

“The immune system could receive a type of vaccination card that, for example, allows them to be exempt from restrictions on their work,” said Gerard Krause, the epidemiologist who led the study at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig, according to Der Spiegel.

Italy is debating a similar proposal with evidence expected to play a key role in the return to normalcy and suggestions for a “COVID pass” promoted by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

Professor of philosophy at the Descartes University in Paris, Michela Marzano, told the New York Times the apparently dystopian idea “seems to divide humanity into two, the strong and the weak.”

“But this is really the case,” he said, adding that the use of antibodies as the basis for free movement was based on protecting people rather than discrimination.

In Austria, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has already said that restrictions could begin to ease as of April 14 with small shops of less than 400 square meters, hardware stores and garden centers that can be opened under strict conditions.

If that goes according to plan, larger stores could open from May 1, and hotels and other services, including schools, from mid-May. Large events will remain banned until the end of June.

If infections increased again, the government could “hit the emergency brake” and reintroduce restrictions, he said.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the country would reopen kindergartens and primary schools for students up to 11 years old starting next week.

Restaurants, bars, and cafes will be closed for now, while churches, libraries, sports centers, and shopping malls will be closed until May 10. Meetings of more than 10 people will be banned until May 10 and the blockade could be reversed if infections increase.

THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has already said that the social distancing will last six months and potentially longer in Australia without a clear way out of the crisis.

“It is clear that the epidemiological curve is beginning to flatten. But it is still too early to determine whether such movements will be significant or sustained. That is why it is important that all Australians continue to adhere to measures of social distancing,” he said Tuesday. .

The restrictions will remain in effect during the Easter break.

Medical Director Brendan Murphy said it is clear from the range of responses that there is no way out of the crisis,

“There are many potential avenues,” he said, adding that the government had asked a variety of different scenarios from health experts.

“Unlike pandemic flu, where the strategy was to control and hold back until the vaccine came, because we knew the vaccine would come, we don’t know if a vaccine will come with this virus and when it will. If it does, it’s a beautiful way Therefore, we have to analyze a variety of different potential scenarios and we will present them to the National Cabinet for discussion. But there is no one correct answer. ”

TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM

A recently published article by British economists Gerard Lyons and Paul Ormerod suggested a “traffic light” system with different activities allowed at different stages that could facilitate the rules.

The authors noted that while they supported the current blockade in the United Kingdom, a prolonged blockade “would eliminate large sectors of the economy”.

Instead, they believe that people will behave differently after the crisis, and a gradual re-entry into normal life would prevent an increase in demand for services and provide hope for confined residents.

“We would go, first, from the running of the bulls to red, where we still have to stop doing things that we could have done before the crisis. Then to amber, as conditions improve, but we still have to be careful. Eventually, we go back to green, when medical experts can provide the clarity, “the authors state in the document.

“This process also gives hope. The first phase would be deliberately called red to ensure that people stop to think before doing things. More but not all store types could be opened and would have to exercise strict social distancing Like most supermarkets, do it now. Many may choose not to reopen, for commercial reasons, as demand would be low. Travel still needs to be discouraged and many international flights banned.

“In the amber phase, unlimited private car travel should be allowed. In fact, people can substitute this for public transportation. To minimize the pressure on public transportation and crowds, there should be attempts to vary the rush hour, with Different opening and closing times The use of disposable masks and gloves may be mandatory when using public transport Restaurants may reopen but with strict seating demarcations to maintain social distance.

“Only in the green phase could sporting events or mass gatherings take place or reopening places of worship. It is in large gatherings that one person can infect many. Mass transit could return to normal.”

Murdoch University’s vice chancellor for health sciences and director of Australia’s National Center for Phenomena, Professor Jeremy Nicholson, said a lot in Australia depends on what happens in Victoria and New South Wales in the coming weeks.

“If it really takes off like in Italy and the UK, then we are locked in for a long time. If the curve really flattens out in Australia, then maybe once the other states start getting low case rates, it will release the limits,” he said.

So far, Professor Nicholson has transferred his entire team of around 20 Perth-based researchers to work on the COVID-19 problem. They are analyzing people’s “complex molecular fingerprints” to discover the probability that they are susceptible to the disease or how they might respond to a certain treatment.

He said that South Korea and Taiwan had provided comprehensive models to flatten the curve so far based on the “test, trace, treat” mantra. The problem for countries like Australia and others will once be removed, how do you “take your foot off the gas?”

“There has to be enough intrinsic immunity to prevent it from rolling back. Potentially, you have a blockage, you do a lot of testing, some people will die, and when you have it under control, you speed it up,” said Professor Nicholson. .

“You make a series of waves that decrease each time. Economically, it’s incredibly disruptive. It’s massively socially disruptive.”

“It is an extraordinary mix of biology, lack of political preparation, and human nature. We as scientists can only offer an elastoplast through big and big wounds.”

Originally published as ‘Immunity Passport’: Life After Closure