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- The coronavirus has mutated, with a variant called B.1.1.7 causing concern.
- Emerging evidence suggests that B.1.1.7 is probably around 70% more infectious than other variants.
- There is growing speculation that children are more susceptible to infection with the variant, but we do not know for sure.
- The UK’s largest teachers union has requested that schools be closed for two weeks from 4 January.
- Here is everything we know so far.
- Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.
A variant of the coronavirus called B.1.1.7 is causing a huge disruption, precipitating new roadblocks and travel restrictions.
Experts begin to suggest that children are more susceptible to B.1.1.7. – and the UK’s largest teachers union has called for schools to be closed for two weeks from 4 January.
The evidence, for now, is not conclusive and scientists continue to investigate. This is what we know so far.
Why is the variant more infectious?
An increasing number of people are becoming infected with COVID-19, the disease that causes the coronavirus, and scientists say that B.1.1.7 is likely more infectious, but evidence is still emerging.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Tuesday that the UK variant has likely already spread to the US.
More information is expected in the coming weeks, but B.1.1.7 is not believed to be more or less deadly than the original virus.
It is normal for a virus to mutate, and there have already been tens of thousands of coronavirus mutations.
However, the new variant significantly changes the virus, potentially altering its behavior. For example, B.1.1.7 has changes in the spike protein, the part of the virus that is used to infect cells, which could mean that it enters cells more easily.
Peak protein is also the target of vaccines, but experts believe that vaccines will continue to work.
Are children more susceptible to the new variant?
“There is an indication that it has a higher propensity to infect children,” Professor Neil Ferguson told reporters on Monday. He is an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London and also a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Group – NERVTAG – the UK government advisory group.
The reason for the difference could be due to the fact that the body’s ACE-2 receptor, where the virus binds, is slightly different in children and adults.
Ferguson told the Commons select committee on Wednesday that there had been anecdotal reports of the variance in schools in areas of England now under the strictest lockdown.
The concern stands in contrast to previous variants of coronavirus circulating in the UK. Chris Whitty, UK chief medical officer, said in a statement in August that there was reasonable, though inconclusive, evidence that primary school children were less likely to contract COVID-19 than the general population.
Professor Wendy Barclay, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Imperial College London and a member of NERVTAG, told reporters in a briefing on Tuesday that variant B.1.1.7 could better bind to the ACE-2 receptor in children. . adding that she was speculating.
“I haven’t seen any data that says it is actually spreading more in children,” Barclay said.
Barclay explained that it is unusual for children not to be affected by a respiratory virus.
“We know that almost all other respiratory infections are spread among children. I wouldn’t be surprised if they eventually end up spreading quite freely. [amongst children],” she said,
Ferguson said Wednesday that there was a small, but statistically significant, higher proportion of cases in those under 15 years of age with the new variant, compared to the old variant. That doesn’t mean it will affect children worse, he said.
“I would like to emphasize, while it is a significant change [in age distribution], it’s not a big change. It is relatively small, “he added.
‘Too early to say’
Ferguson, whose coronavirus predictions triggered the UK’s first lockdown, said scientists needed to collect more data to see how the variant behaves.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Monday, Ferguson said that he expected a decline in all variants of the virus in circulation while schools remain closed for the holidays, but that it is too early to say precisely what additional measures might be necessary in the new year. .
Some scientists have advocated closing schools only as a last resort. Professor Deenan Pillay, a professor of virology at University College London, told The Guardian on Monday that the focus should be on helping schools operate in the safest way possible.
“It is easy to start thinking of this variant as a different virus, but no, it is the same virus. And it is transmitted in the same way,” he said.
The UK government could rely on evidence to support schools.
“If we work together on testing, we can keep schools open,” said Gavin Williamson, UK Secretary for Education in a statement Monday.
The variant can be detected by normal tests, although some may need to be modified slightly. A test used by large UK laboratories analyzes three parts of the genetic sequence of the virus. Mutations in B.1.1.7 mean that only two of the three normally occurring parts of the virus are positive.
Experts recommend that measures that restrict the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, remain paramount. The challenge will come in 2021 when decisions need to be made about schools.
“The real question then is: how much can we relax the measures in the new year and still stay in control?” Ferguson said.
