Here is the expected price of gasoline for November

Motorists can expect gasoline prices to fall further next month, November 2020, according to mid-month data released by the Central Energy Fund (CEF).

According to CEF data, the price of gasoline is currently showing an over-recovery of between 14 and 17 cents per liter. Diesel, for its part, also shows an over-recovery of around 20 cents per liter.

An excessive recovery points to a decline in fuel prices, should market conditions persist through the end of the month.

The only fuel to counteract the trend is glow wax, which shows insufficient recovery of 5 cents per liter.

• Gasoline 95: decrease of 17 cents per liter
• Gasoline 93: decrease of 14 cents per liter
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 20 cents per liter
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 20 cents per liter
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 5 cents per liter

Changes in local fuel prices are affected by two main components: international prices for petroleum products and the rand / dollar exchange rate during the period.

Rand / dollar

Despite a spike above R17 per dollar in late September, the rand / dollar exchange rate has been in a narrow range below that level for much of October.

The rand has been trading in a range of R16.40 to R16.75 for much of the month, moving primarily on international factors, rather than local events.

Global markets have been affected by the current US presidential elections that will culminate on Election Day, November 3. The increase in Covid-19 numbers in Europe has also caused nervousness in the market.

This is particularly pronounced in the UK, where the government has implemented a three-tier lockdown, again disrupting production in the region.

At the local level, the market has its eyes on the economic recovery plan, which will be outlined by President Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday (October 15). Much of this plan has already been published in the media.

Another fact that keeps investors on their toes is the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which was delayed until October 28. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni is in an unenviable position to find money to fund many of the government’s lofty recovery goals, while dealing with lower tax revenue, bankrupt state-owned companies and rising debt.

Oil prices

International prices for petroleum products are largely affected by movements in oil prices, which have increased over the last month. Crude oil prices have settled in the lower range of $ 40, currently trading between $ 41 and $ 43 a barrel.

This is a significant rise from levels below $ 40 this time last month, where prices fell to $ 38 a barrel from around $ 44 a barrel in August.

Despite reports and predictions that oil demand would be lower than expected due to international economies still battling the Covid-19 pandemic, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a much higher oil extraction of anticipated, which has driven prices.

There has also been an increase in demand from China, offsetting declining demand elsewhere. Meanwhile, Norway, Libya and operations in the Gulf of Mexico have resumed.

However, despite the rally, analysts remain cautious and silent on the recovery of the global oil market, saying that uncertainty still lingers regarding the Covid-19 crisis.

This is how the expected prices would be reflected at the pumps:

Read: Here is the official price of gasoline for October.