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The comments spoke of the expectation that there was no going back to seeing the United States as the sheriff of the West, exercising military muscles around the world in the way it did in the decades after the Cold War.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden watches as he speaks at Queen’s headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on November 5, 2020. Image: AFP.
BRUSSELS – The EU will once again have a cooperative partner for the United States when Joe Biden becomes president, but Europeans should have no illusions: Washington will not be a balloon-cop or the great protector of NATO, say leaders and analysts.
“Great day for the US and Europe, we look forward to working together with the new administration to rebuild our partnership,” said top EU diplomat Josep Borrell in a tweet congratulating Biden on his electoral victory over President Donald Trump. .
But Jean-Claude Juncker, former president of the European Commission, previously offered a typically forceful assessment: “Joe Biden is not going to change Washington’s approach to international problems overnight, because he can’t.”
And Sebastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute named after an influential former EU chief, warned that “Europeans must learn to live without US global leadership.”
“For the foreseeable future, the United States will be worried about itself,” agreed German political scientist Markus Kaim.
The comments spoke of the expectation that there was no going back to seeing the United States as the sheriff of the West, exercising military muscles around the world in the way it did in the decades after the Cold War.
While the United States still maintains carrier battle groups in different regions and bases, including Europe, South Korea, Japan, Afghanistan, and Bahrain, it has been pulling out of conflict zones under a trend accelerated by Trump but started by his predecessor. Barack Obama.
Most notably, in the last two decades, much of its military focus has shifted to Asia, away from Europe.
Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian think tank Affari Internazionali Institute, added: “We are witnessing the end of US imperialism with the United States that no longer wants to be the police of the world.”
So what can Europeans expect from the new president of the United States?
“Things will get a lot easier, because Joe Biden understands Europe better than Donald Trump,” Juncker said.
However, warned a diplomat sent to Brussels, “you should not expect a radical change.”
Europeans “will once again have a partner, an ally, but they need to reinforce their strategic autonomy in the economic and security fields, in order to defend their interests,” he continued.
Jean-Dominique Giuliani, director of the Schuman Foundation, reinforced that point by saying that EU leaders must “define what they want to do with the United States, and not just wait for me to tell them.”
TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
“With Biden as president, the EU could look forward to and welcome a much more predictable and constructive relationship between the United States and the EU on trade, NA with Iran, the Middle East, and especially on climate change, if the United States it re-enters the Paris climate agreement, “predicted Mujtaba Rahman, director of the Europe office of risk analysis firm Eurasia Group.
Trade, in particular, is expected to flow with much less friction than marked the Trump years.
Under Trump, Washington flexed trade muscles by imposing higher tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting Europe to prepare a response. A truce was reached with the promise of a mini trade agreement, but it has not yet been fulfilled.
On climate change, Biden has already declared that he wants to return the United States to the Paris climate agreement.
He has also indicated that he wants to reverse the withdrawals that Trump ordered for the World Health Organization and the nuclear agreement with Iran.
But there are some repairs that Biden is unlikely to make, including America’s show of force to China’s assertive policies and a desire to reduce American involvement in conflicts far from its soil.
Such positions are popular in the country, explained Nicole Koenig, an advocacy specialist at the Berlin-based Jacques Delors Institute.
What will change will be the style.
“Joe Biden will inform and coordinate with his allies,” he said.
‘DIVISION OF WORK’
Trump’s unilateral decisions and antagonism towards some of the leaders of the NATO countries created tensions and divisions within the Alliance.
His boss, Jen Stoltenberg, expended a lot of energy “to appease the beast,” said a diplomat.
NATO can look forward to normalization with Biden, but analysts believe Washington will remain withdrawn in looking after US interests.
“That will be uncomfortable for the Europeans,” whose NATO members are divided between a pro-European and an Atlantic side, Kaim said.
“The illusions of European strategic autonomy must come to an end: Europeans will not be able to replace the crucial role of the United States as a security provider,” German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer warned in an opinion piece for the Politico website.
Kaim suggested that Biden’s approach would be to propose to Europeans “a simple division of labor: you will help us in Europe so that we can get more involved in Asia.”
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