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To speak of President Cyril Ramaphosa strengthening his position after the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting last weekend, and of “ fighting ” attempts to eliminate him, is largely a hoax and swagger, serving as an “ easy win ” to distract from the foul. of real reform in the party.
Ramaphosa appeared to flex his muscles in a briefing on Monday (Aug 31), describing the results of the ANC NEC meeting held over the weekend.
Bloomberg reported that Ramaphosa won the game in a power struggle in the nation’s deeply divided ruling party after surviving an attempt to force him out of office, opening the way for him to reform his cabinet.
The expulsion attempt was reportedly made during a three-day meeting of top ANC leaders that ended on Sunday, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto described this week’s headlines as “post-NEC Ramaphoria delusion.”
“Last weekend seems to have been the triumph of overly simplistic reports, spinning around and the need for many to get back to having a Ramaphoria moment,” the analyst said. “There was never a serious numerical or logistical threat to the president’s position, and the fact that this has become history is a distraction.”
He said the suggestion that Ramaphosa resign was made on the Friday before the meeting, according to sources, and was never formally made at the NEC itself.
The topic, along with the repeated talks about fighting corruption, has only distracted from the real problem facing the country: economic growth and avoiding fiscal advantage – things that require reform and a recovery plan, Attard Montalto said.
These two items have been largely omitted from the match’s post-NEC briefing.
Same old ANC
Attard Montalto said that the fight against corruption is a “necessary distraction”, but markets and people respond more to action (arrests, prosecution) than to a vague direction of domestic politics.
He previously highlighted how rent extraction (business bidding and sponsorship linked to government contracts) is fundamental to the functioning of the ANC, and that the only way to get away from this will be for the entire party to reform.
While the ANC came out of its CNE meeting with promises to strengthen its crackdown on corruption, it has not yet made any definitive policy or structural changes to alter this system, the analyst said.
The results that were addressed are not new or were vaguely explained, he said.
One of the results in addressing corruption was that ANC members accused of corruption must “step aside”; however, this has been a long-standing resolution within the party, and members appear to maintain full salaries and benefits, Attard Montalto said.
Members accused of corruption will be “asked” to go to the Integrity Commission to explain themselves, and if the explanation is not acceptable, they “may” be suspended, but it is not clear what the committee is supposed to do to judge the acceptability of an explanation.
“There does not appear to be any new requirement in the ANC to inform police authorities about suspected members,” Attard Montalto said.
Members convicted of corruption must resign and face disciplinary action, but it has not yet been explicitly mentioned that their membership will be revoked.
ANC leaders and their families will have to comply with the new guidelines on how to do business with the state; however, the existing rules on public officials and parallel government leaders are not an obstacle for this to occur.
And finally, ANC leaders will have to make regular financial statements, a positive step, Attard Montalto said, “but one that family members can easily overlook.”
“There is a credibility test of implementation, given how much the ANC and its leaders have criticized corruption in the past and allowed it to continue or be complicit. It will take several real examples of people who have been expelled from the party to cement any evidence of change, ”he said.
Reality
Attard Montalto said that the latest ANC uproar around corruption is likely a political move leading up to the 2021 elections, with low payoffs like Covid-19 contracts and big names accused of corruption as an easy win for make it look like you’re taking action.
However, the mechanics of the party, particularly at the provincial and local levels, are so ingrained in rent extraction that the ANC is unlikely to be able to move away from it, he said.
“The ANC does not have the ability to stop this because it would erode the very foundations of its ability to finance itself and its ability to function at the local level in particular. Therefore, we must be clear that an exercise will be conducted to address in part the historical corruption that was particularly flagrant, and the corruption related to low-level and high-profile PPE.
Because of this, the Intellidex analyst said there is no real political will to change things within the ANC, and even if President Ramaphosa had won a sudden ‘flurry’ of support within the party, as reports suggest, divided ideologies. , implementation of lagged policies. and the lack of consensus on fundamental issues means that little can be done about it.
“We believe that the markets run the risk of being wrong in the NEC. What is happening is more subtle and more boring, although it is still important, ”he said.
Read: Ramaphosa powerless to stop ANC corruption – analyst
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